by Colorado dreaming » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:59 pm
The murder statistic, assuming it is accurate even though it give no clue on how it was determined (i.e. what/where/geographical limits/etc), hardly seems relevant to this thread. Fort Collins averages 1 murder/year for approx 150K people (most of the victims knew their murderer (even in the Tim Master's case, the ex-boyfriend's DNA was on the victim) - not a stranger on the trail). Toledo, OH has about 300K but averages around 35-40 murders/yr (i.e. a 1700-2000 times higher murder rate than FTC) but even most of these murders occur in a small area just off downtown. In other words, certain cities with high murder rates that skew statistics and small geographical areas within a city often are the most dangerous. So, statistics must be deeply analyazed before giving them credibility or to see how and when they apply to a given circumstance to see if they are comparable and to what degree they are comparable.
Further, according to the May 1997 Backbacker Magazine (pg 60, et seq), since 1937, the AT has had 9 murders but just in the years 1989 to 1997 (8 years), 28 million people have been on that trail. So, 9 murders in 60 years but 3.5 million (28M/8yrs) people travel it every year (and I'm sure that has increased since 1997). Now take that in context nationwide - NO OTHER national long distance trail HAS EVER HAD A MURDER (according to the magazine as of 1997). (Now the article also states the statistic of 1:20,000,000 of being murdered in a national park - but I have no idea what this represents (over what time frame, per visit, ???)so it is meaningless). The National Parks in 1995 had 13 murders but 270 million visitors (the article does not state how many of these murderers and victims knew each other - I tend to think a large portion already knew each other). The article goes on to state that most of these murders occurred where the victims were easily accessible - (i.e. trailheads, parking lots, camping sites, etc.) According to Park's keeper of crime stats, the "overwhelming" crime is front country (not backcountry) since the backcountry is not where criminals tend to go. Also, from personal knowledge and the information posted on 14ers.com, I tend to think that the trouble you will mostly likely find from the 2 legged kind will occur at the TH or at a campsite - not on a trail. And those seem to involve late night alcohol/drugs binging. The article has good suggestions on how to be safe - mainly common sense suggestions (don't hike alone/don't leave itineraries on car/don't flaunt expensive gear/be alert for someone who's acting suspicious/drunk/aggressive/has inadequate gear (i.e. lying about their goal)/avoid confrontation).