I think the situation is even safer than this implies. The ratio typically quoted is deaths to summits; but Alan is saying deaths to attempted summits is more accurate. However, many of the deaths are those who never intended to summit. They are local mountain workers (almost all Sherpa) carrying loads in a support capacity. These guys make many (often dozens) of forays onto the mountain vs the typical Western climber who will make three four forays. This hugely increases their exposure to objective risks and gives them many more opportunities to make an error in judgment. So, if you really want to know how dangerous it is for a Western climber you go with Alan's death to attempted summits but only include Western climbers. The odds increase quite significantly when you reduce the numerator and raise the denominator, but they are still not very good vs virtually any other activity. We certainly wouldn't risk driving our families anywhere if there were a 1% chance of death in any given week or month.Alan Arnette wrote:
I know this table reflects summits to death and not attempts to deaths but for discussion it might be useful.
This is not meant to in any way lessen the significance of the mountain workers' deaths. Any death is tragic. It is meant to address the OP's opening questions about what the risk for a person attempting all 14 might be and how do they justify that risk. I know of no mountain workers attempting to climb all 14 so that leaves only Western climbers to be considered. Whether the risk of death is 85% or 1%, the question is still interesting. Besides the obvious answer of self-confidence and "it can't happen to me because I'm smarter/better" I think climbers in general have a different calculus for risk vs reward and high achieving climbers may be even more different from normal.
The discussion will now devolve into name-calling of hapless, rich, white, ego-driven Everest climbers as they are carried over dead brown guys on their way to the top so they can impress people at big soirees in New York City.