Where do you find accurate weather online?

[dpage]

If it's summer you're talking about, I don't think it matters. We plan our trips far in advance and go regardless of weather forecasts. Summer weather in the mountains is pretty predictable with afternoon storms, so we just start early and bring rain gear.

Exact opposite for me. After more than a hundred summits, I'll forgo wasting 4+ hours driving if there is more than a 50% chance bad weather. I can go next weekend.

+1 I like to enjoy my days in the mountains and have only needed 2 repeat trips to get as far on the 14ers list as I have. I'll look for good weather around the state to set myself up for success.

[tarn]

If it's summer you're talking about, I don't think it matters. We plan our trips far in advance and go regardless of weather forecasts. Summer weather in the mountains is pretty predictable with afternoon storms, so we just start early and bring rain gear.

Exact opposite for me. After more than a hundred summits, I'll forgo wasting 4+ hours driving if there is more than a 50% chance bad weather. I can go next weekend.

We're planning on hiking up the standard route of Mount Bierstadt on or around July 22nd (me, my wife and our two boys, 13 and 11). I'm trying to get a sense of how to evaluate the weather on the day of the hike, so I just looked at the current forecast for next week:
http://www.14ers.com/php14ers/weather.p ... 105.668610" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Do other people think that the above forecast looks pretty normal (i.e. 50% chance of thunderstorms, every day)? Or does that look worse than normal?

I appreciate any opinions!

Thanks,
Tim

[jdorje]

50% chance of thunderstorms after noon every day is completely normal for monsoon season. Every now and then you will get a drier day for some reason, one with a 20% chance or with thunderstorms not until 3. Otherwise get off the ridge line before noon...

[ajkagy]

50% chance of thunderstorms after noon every day is completely normal for monsoon season. Every now and then you will get a drier day for some reason, one with a 20% chance or with thunderstorms not until 3. Otherwise get off the ridge line before noon...

+1 also sounds like with the el nino it might be a particularly moist monsoon season this year. Also, not uncommon to get a storm/showers even in the morning at 10am during the most intense monsoon days.

[tarn]

jdorje and ajkagy,

Thanks to both of you for your insights.
We will be camping for three weeks in Colorado, starting at Guanella Pass, and I am starting to get a better feel of what type of weather to expect.

Tim

[pseudoghost]

A couple of points:

1 - Forecasts on weather.gov and other sites are really not that accurate (even when using a point forecast), because they simply do not run the models down to the resolution needed to actually forecast convective cells. For long range forecasts, they may be modeling a very large area (10s of sq km) with a single cell. A conservative bet is that any day in the summer months with a forecast > 20% chance of thunderstorms will have a good chance of rain in the afternoon. So always plan to be off the summit early in the summer.

2 - That being said, you will want to watch out for forecasts associated with big fronts moving through. Forecasts for such systems tend to be much more accurate, and the storms associated with big fronts moving through tend to be more severe and might last for a few days.

[jdorje]

I dunno, I have always found them pretty accurate. However you have to consider the elevation of the forecast, and you can't control that very well. A 20% chance of thunderstorms at 12k feet is very promising; a 20% chance of thunderstorms at 8k feet is not.

The forecasts do tend to change a lot; checking on the morning of a hike is recommended if possible.

Example: yesterday I checked the weather and it showed a 50% chance of rain after 3 PM forecast today for several of my target hikes. This is actually pretty good, but monday's was similar and is a better day for me. But when I woke up at ~8am today the forecast was changed to 20% chance after noon. Looking at the hourly graph showed 15-17% hourly chance of precip from about 2pm through 5pm. Though it was late, I took the chance and jumped on the trail around 10, and was rewarded with a perfect day. The elevation for the forecast was 11.5k. Obviously if you have a drive of hours you have to plan further in advance than this, but if you're staying near the mountains you can benefit from planning around the day's forecast.

[litote312]

In regards to NOAA:

I've had them accurately predict mountain weather a few dozen times and incorrectly twice. Good enough of a ratio for me.

[trektheworld]

I am using Mountain-Forecast and thought I found a glitch in their forecast when I put in Mt. of the Holy Cross for Tues/Wed/Thurs and was coming up with mostly sunny skies across forecasts. I had changed my plans to get out there in my mind. Woke up this morning and it's all changed to typical monsoonal weather with sunny AM skies and a chance of rain later. Funny that this peak forecasts this weather and just to the south, the Collegiates are all forecasting rain, rain, and more rain.

[don ingram]

I read the forecast discussion on the NWS site and combine that with the 6-10 day outlooks. Also doesn't hurt to look at what phase the MJO is in. Those three data points can give you a decent idea of the general possibility for storminess. For on the trail I use a little pocket cloud reference my wife gave me.

Good luck!

[Jim Davies]

Studies have shown that forecasts beyond 10 days are no better than the historic averages for the date (Nate Silver's book has a good chapter on this). Up to about 5 days I trust the weather.gov point forecasts.