How bad does the weather forecast have to be...

[Old Hickory]

. . . for you to cancel a hike? I'm looking at Tuesday and Wednesday: For Humbolt, it's 30% chance of T-storms both days; for Shavano, 40-40; for Lake City, 40-30. This looks bad to me. I'm guessing that if the chance of t-storms is all day they're not the predictable and avoidable summer t-storms. Do you all consider this a dangerous forecast? I came here to hike, but I'd prefer not getting zapped while doing it.

[highpilgrim]

Just get out!

Start early and let the actual conditions be your guide. If you can, steer towards an area that has the most favorable forecast as you can find and then just GET OUT. I can't tell you how many times I've heard whining about the weather as reason to not hike and then it turned out wonderfully. Some of the best days I've had were days others elected to stay in. Coming from out of state, I don't have the option to waste a day because what might happen.

Again, get on the mountain and measure as you go. Let the reality be the decider as to how far you go.

[bigredmachine]

. . . for you to cancel a hike? I'm looking at Tuesday and Wednesday: For Humbolt, it's 30% chance of T-storms both days; for Shavano, 40-40; for Lake City, 40-30. This looks bad to me. I'm guessing that if the chance of t-storms is all day they're not the predictable and avoidable summer t-storms. Do you all consider this a dangerous forecast? I came here to hike, but I'd prefer not getting zapped while doing it.

Looking at the hourly graph, it is less than 25% precip before 2pm on Tuesday and 12% before 2 on Wednesday. This is for shavano. Start at or 4 or 5 and you should be good. Evaluate the skies as you go. This forecast isn't to bad at all imo.

[TallGrass]

+1 to what Pilgrim said, and to watch the radar up to your departure for cloud fronts that are tracking that direction which are usually 100% along their path.

[CreekRunner]

Here is a previous thread that seems to answer your question.

[bonehead]

Forecast looks pretty good to me.
We're heading up to try Oklahoma tomorrow.
Pay your dime and take your chances.

[Ptglhs]

I try to make sure I give myself enough time to be under treeline an hour before the forecast precip chance goes over 40%. That may be paranoid of me, but I've had thunder cells forms over my on the false summit of Elbert a couple of times. It was scary and not an experience I'd care to repeat.

[bdloftin77]

I'm really conservative/paranoid too. If the precip % is 40 or more while I'd be ascending, at the top, or above treeline, I'd probably wait for a different day. I'm very summit oriented though, and have a harder time turning around than some people. I really love hiking on bluebird days when there is no weather risk or time pressure. It really depends on the person, and risk tolerance. Sometimes the forecast is wrong, conditions hold out, there's a weather window, you climb faster than expected.. so that's something to keep in mind, too. If you don't drive out, you have no weather risk, but your chance of summiting is also zero.

OFTEN with NOAA forecast, if it says there's a 20-30% chance of rain in the morning, it actually ends up being fairly clear or only a few clouds until later morning or noon. Seems how Colorado weather often works during the summer in the mountains.

[rpdawes]

For any guy at my age of 76, I have to depend on weather forecast very closely. Since I am a very slow hiker and sometimes sleep in the woods below 12,000 ft level after a summit, I will go anywhere for a very long trail more than 6 miles for a 2-day weather forecast of less than a 5% thunderstorm risk and less than 15 mph wind speed and no rain. To date, I have managed to summit fifteen 14er mountains successfully and have never experienced such a bad weather. I usually read weather forecast from three different sources and make a go decision accordingly.

[Tornadoman]

For me it depends how difficult/long a hike is, plus how far away it is. If I don't like the weather for a farther away or more difficult peak, I will probably look at something closer that might be able to be done in marginal weather or more quickly. Example- This weekend I was planning on Capitol but don't like the weather and think there will be fresh snow. I don't want to drive 4 hours each way, and attempt that difficult a peak in iffy conditions. I am now considering options that are less technical and closer to home for a one day climb.