I know when I have doubts about the accuracy or veracity of information, the first thing I do is ask a bunch of strangers on the internet.PaliKona wrote:Since when are forecasters right?
The monsoon...
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Re: The monsoon...
- bonehead
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Re: The monsoon...
It has rained around here the last few days.
Morning, noon or night. Take your pick.
Nothing corresponding to the official forecast.
Totally unpredictable at this point.
Pay your dime, take your chances.
Morning, noon or night. Take your pick.
Nothing corresponding to the official forecast.
Totally unpredictable at this point.
Pay your dime, take your chances.
- Jim Davies
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Re: The monsoon...
1990?PaliKona wrote:Since when are forecasters right?
Climbing at altitude is like hitting your head against a brick wall — it's great when you stop. -- Chris Darwin
I'm pretty tired. I think I'll go home now. -- Forrest Gump
I'm pretty tired. I think I'll go home now. -- Forrest Gump
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Re: The monsoon...
Thanks Ron. Beautiful Thursday morning in the San Juans. Really wanted to get Sneffels, especially after getting shutdown on the top of the snake couloir many years ago. Played it safe and opted for the standard route this time. Still had to kick steps in the snow couloir so heads up if anybody is heading up there.
- highpilgrim
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Re: The monsoon...
Kevin Baker wrote:Keegan and I enjoyed a productive 13er weekend in the Lake City area with early starts and high trailheads.
Over a ten day period from the 19th to the 29th of July, when I don't think the forecast ever called for less than a 50% chance of rain, we hiked 7 of the 10 days and only got rained on hard once. Coming down of Wilson Peak a brief storm with graupel hit us for about 20 minutes and then quit. The morning before and the afternoon after were beautiful as were many of the other days we hiked.12ersRule wrote:Just get out and see what happens.
8 13ers and a 14er with a bunch of exploring up high in between and we never got really wet. Except for crossing Lackawanna Creek that is.
Don't trust weather reports. Start early and be prepared for weather, but get out regardless of the forecast and you will often be rewarded for the effort.
Last edited by highpilgrim on Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Call on God, but row away from the rocks.
Hunter S Thompson
Walk away from the droning and leave the hive behind.
Dick Derkase
Hunter S Thompson
Walk away from the droning and leave the hive behind.
Dick Derkase
Re: The monsoon...
There's no reason not to trust them, as long as you understand what they are saying. A 50% chance of rain does not mean that for your mountain there are 50/50 odds of rain. It means that for the specified forecast area, there is a 50% chance rain will occur somewhere in that area.highpilgrim wrote:Don't trust weather reports.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Also, at least with the NWS forecasts, they will typically give you a time frame. Forecasts for morning thunderstorms over the mountains are rare.
- highpilgrim
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Re: The monsoon...
I understand exactly what they are saying.vandy wrote:There's no reason not to trust them, as long as you understand what they are saying.highpilgrim wrote:Don't trust weather reports.
Basing your decision to hike/climb based upon weather predictions is a good way to waste lots of good opportunities to get out. Mountains generate their own weather, often unpredictably and not compliant with the forecast.
Stay home and dry if you want. I'll get out and take my chances. I find it works more often than not.
Call on God, but row away from the rocks.
Hunter S Thompson
Walk away from the droning and leave the hive behind.
Dick Derkase
Hunter S Thompson
Walk away from the droning and leave the hive behind.
Dick Derkase
- 12ersRule
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Re: The monsoon...
They're saying "Stay inside where it's safe".highpilgrim wrote:I understand exactly what they are saying.
Seeing this image is a bummer every time. Looks like "the end of days".
- BillMiddlebrook
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Re: The monsoon...
The NWS forecasts can be quite helpful and if you know how to research through the details of the forecast, you'll plan better. Check the details of the forecast and look at the hourly charts and graphs since a 50% forecast of rain may be isolated to the afternoon, etc. Sometimes that 50% forecast means you'll be ok in the morning and sometimes it means you should stay home because the precip is likely ALL day, not just in the afternoon.
This morning, for example: A 50% forecast locally all day, including early in the morning. Sure enough, it was raining by 9am. The other day I had a 50% forecast but it was clear the precip wouldn't start until after 1pm. Climbed a 13er with that forecast and was out before it rained.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose but it's key to research beyond the percentage and icons on the main weather pages.
This morning, for example: A 50% forecast locally all day, including early in the morning. Sure enough, it was raining by 9am. The other day I had a 50% forecast but it was clear the precip wouldn't start until after 1pm. Climbed a 13er with that forecast and was out before it rained.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose but it's key to research beyond the percentage and icons on the main weather pages.
"When I go out, I become more alive. I just love skiing. The gravitational pull. When you ski steep terrain... you can almost get a feeling of flying." -Doug Coombs
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Re: The monsoon...
Getting out to climb in the mountains should not be curtailed by a mediocre forecast, but if you are about to drive 6-7 hours because you are really keen on climbing a specific mountain, then one likes to hedge his bets a little (just gas costs alone are a factor for some of us). So let's not project
- highpilgrim
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Re: The monsoon...
Agreed. It's a useful tool that can help plan for the best outcome.BillMiddlebrook wrote:The NWS forecasts can be quite helpful and if you know how to research through the details of the forecast, you'll plan better.
I have limited windows of opportunity. If one mountain won't cooperate, find one that will. They're all good in some way. Get out! is the bottom line.onebyone wrote:if you are about to drive 6-7 hours because you are really keen on climbing a specific mountain, then one likes to hedge his bets a little (just gas costs alone are a factor for some of us). So let's not project
I can't even begin to tell you how many remarkable things I've seen in weather that was marginal at best.
Call on God, but row away from the rocks.
Hunter S Thompson
Walk away from the droning and leave the hive behind.
Dick Derkase
Hunter S Thompson
Walk away from the droning and leave the hive behind.
Dick Derkase
- BillMiddlebrook
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Re: The monsoon...
Right!
If a particular area looks doomed, look through each mountain range for a better option and forecast.
It often means I end up in the Sangres!
If a particular area looks doomed, look through each mountain range for a better option and forecast.
It often means I end up in the Sangres!
"When I go out, I become more alive. I just love skiing. The gravitational pull. When you ski steep terrain... you can almost get a feeling of flying." -Doug Coombs