Rain Forecast to Cancel Hike

Colorado peak questions, condition requests and other info.
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LadyCU07
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Rain Forecast to Cancel Hike

Post by LadyCU07 »

I'm curious about everyone's opinion on rain and thunderstorms. What conditions in the forecast would make you consider changing your hike day?
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SikYou
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Re: Rain Forecast to Cancel Hike

Post by SikYou »

Lightning! I hike in rain as long as its not real cold but the big risk is the lightning and that sometimes very hard to predict.
I'm slower than Scott P.
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ameristrat
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Re: Rain Forecast to Cancel Hike

Post by ameristrat »

Or heavy rain on notoriously loose peaks.

Generally, a chance of thunderstorms after noon is about par. Unless the forecast looks really bad, start well before dawn and 90+% of the time you'll be down before it matters. As always, you should be constantly evaluating the weather during your climb.

The weather doesn't follow the clock, just because being down by noon is usually safe doesn't mean it's always safe. Conversely, I've had some awesome afternoon hikes with out a cloud in the sky.

The point is, don't over analyze the forecast. Unless it looks really tough (Thunderstorms likely after 9 am), I'd say start early and give it a shot. Just be willing and ready to turn around in a timely fashion if things don't go right in the sky.
You cannot stay on the summit forever; you have to come down again. So why bother in the first place? Just this: What is above knows what is below, but what is below does not know what is above. One climbs, one sees. One descends, one sees no longer, but one has seen. There is an art of conducting oneself in the lower regions by the memory of what one saw higher up. When one can no longer see, one can at least still know. - Rene Daumal
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AlexeyD
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Re: Rain Forecast to Cancel Hike

Post by AlexeyD »

LadyCU07 wrote:I'm curious about everyone's opinion on rain and thunderstorms. What conditions in the forecast would make you consider changing your hike day?
Depends on how much of the day we're talking. If it's just the typical summer storm cycle (PM storms, otherwise sunny) then no - just get an early start and plan to be off any high and exposed places by around noon. However, if it's an all-day thing (like we had last week, for example) then I'd probably cancel: no point in being wet all day, and there are so many days that are NOT like that in CO that it just doesn't seem worth it.
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Scott P
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Re: Rain Forecast to Cancel Hike

Post by Scott P »

It depends on what I'm hiking. Regardless of weather, I almost always go anyway, but if the weather is going to be really bad, I'll alter the destination.

On 14ers though, I don't mess with thunderstorms, so if the weather forecast is really bad, I'd go somewhere else. Since they are in the same state I live in and I'm in no hurry to finish, it's kind of pointless to try it with an 70% chance of thunderstorms or something.
I'm old, slow and fat. Unfortunately, those are my good qualities.
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Re: Rain Forecast to Cancel Hike

Post by doggler »

LadyCU07 wrote:I'm curious about everyone's opinion on rain and thunderstorms. What conditions in the forecast would make you consider changing your hike day?
You will succeed 0% of the time you don't try.

I know many who will pull the plug on a trip if they read 30% or 40% or 50% or whatever, but the truth of it is there's no harm in driving to a TH and playing it by ear. I have been on countless 70% days that ended up bluebird. Conversely, I've had to alter plans en route to a summit due to surprise conditions on a 10% day.

The peak itself should also shape your decision.

My advice - tier it. Instead of having one cut and dry percentage, have a range where you're already prepared to turn around if need be but you'll still start out.

For instance, lets say you're planning on Bierstadt. (these are just rough estimates of my threshold. everyone's will be different)
0 to 30% - yup, probably going to be no problem.
30 to 50% - probably will go, just have to start early and not mess around.
50 to 80% - ugh. Well, it's worth a shot, but if I see it building I'm out.
80 to 100% - yeah. I'll just surf goat memes instead.

Something like Pyramid, those tiers may be a little tighter
0 to 20%
20 to 40%
40 to 70%
70 to 100%

Of course, there's more to it than the percentage. What time does the forecast call for rain? 2pm? Sweet! 10am? Damn.

And, most importantly, what do you see? Once you've decided to start your hike/climb, just be able to turn around if things start to build. The mountain will be there tomorrow. And next year. Heck, it'll be here in many millions of years.
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Brian C
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Re: Rain Forecast to Cancel Hike

Post by Brian C »

I usually pay more attention to the weather graph portion on NOAA as I've found it to be pretty reliable.


I circled the portions that I pay attention to.
Image

40% storms that show likely thunder/rain at noon I factor much differently than 70% chance that show only chance after 3. I also drew in a little arrow showing the afternoon spike in precip potential starting around 11am. Obviously it's not right 100% of the time, but I've found that it usually shows the weather window pretty well.
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Re: Rain Forecast to Cancel Hike

Post by jmanner »

Brian C wrote:I usually pay more attention to the weather graph portion on NOAA as I've found it to be pretty reliable.


I circled the portions that I pay attention to.
Image

40% storms that show likely thunder/rain at noon I factor much differently than 70% chance that show only chance after 3. I also drew in a little arrow showing the afternoon spike in precip potential starting around 11am. Obviously it's not right 100% of the time, but I've found that it usually shows the weather window pretty well.
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