Estimate on 14er finishers?

[Wanderlust]

Not everyone reports finishing - after all you get no patch or anything - just personal satisfaction. I finished the first time in 2004 and told the CMC since I am a member. I now have 3 left to finish a second time but I don't think they record that. Judging from the crowds at the trailhead - there must be thousands that have finished. I feel like an old timer. I recall when 10 cars seemed to be average number at the trailhead. No matter how many people do it - it really is an accomplishment. I sometimes forget that.

[mjsherman]

I finished in 2005 and didn't report to CMC either. Finished on Capitol though. Steve Gladbach was my partner. I have not looked, but is there a way to look at all reported finishers on this sight? That may give a better I idea. Who knows.
Matt

[Jim Davies]

You can sort the peak lists summary page by total peaks. Doing this, I find almost 20 pages of 58's (25 per page) for 496 definite finishers, and 13 more pages that have at least 55 (can't tell which peaks they're missing from the summary, could just be Cameron ). So I'd guess about 600 finishers of the 54 or 55 list have peak lists here.

[mjsherman]

Cool Jim, thanks for the info.
Matt

[SkaredShtles]

Agree with Sean. It's the nature of a peak bagger to document the feat. I did. My guess is that those who do not are in the minority. That said, many more people are finishing now than when I started in 1988. I see the 1,500 number increasing exponentially.

This word doesn't mean what you think it does.

[RadioJay]

Perhaps. Populations generally grow exponentially, so it made sense to me. Maybe a slow exponential, y=exp(ax) where a is a small positive number. Did not mean a doubling every year, but might have left that impression.

[Sean Nunn]

I'm sure he meant about 1500 who had reported to CMC up to 2012. Way more than that total.

That makes a LOT more sense. Figure probably 30-50% of finishers actually report and you have an estimate of 3000-5000.

Sean Nunn
Raytown MO

[Sean Nunn]

Not everyone reports finishing - after all you get no patch or anything - just personal satisfaction. I finished the first time in 2004 and told the CMC since I am a member. I now have 3 left to finish a second time but I don't think they record that. Judging from the crowds at the trailhead - there must be thousands that have finished. I feel like an old timer. I recall when 10 cars seemed to be average number at the trailhead. No matter how many people do it - it really is an accomplishment. I sometimes forget that.

Even climbing one 14er is a decent accomplishment, but finishing them all is a much rarer, and much more significant accomplishment. There may be a lot of cars at certain trailheads, but I think that number is probably growing a lot faster than the number of 14ers finishers.

My guess is that 14ers climbing is like a lot of other things in our society: there are a lot more people doing it, but most of them are just playing at it (and I would include myself in that category even though I am over halfway through "the list"). There are tons more marathon finishers in 2014 than in 1970, but there are fewer sub 3:00 marathoners than there used to be.

I am sure there are a lot more people summitting Gray's than in 1970. I doubt there are that many more summitting Little Bear.

Sean Nunn
Raytown MO

[GeezerClimber]

One angle to consider is to come up with an estimate of how many people climb the LEAST climbed peaks since those people are far more likely to finish. Consider Culebra: This year, the ranch allowed a maximum of 60 climbers per week for 10 weeks IIRC. But they didn't sell out. They probably averaged maybe 45/week. The day we climbed, there were only 8 of us. I know some others climb in winter, so let's use a nice round number of 500 per year climbing Culebra. But not all who climb it will ever finish. For instance, out of the 8 that day, one was finishing with it, another was very close and I was pretty close. My wife and two others would clearly never finish. The other two, I don't know.

But, according to 14ers.com statistics, Culebra is not the least climbed peak. Mt Wilson is the least climbed ranked peak while El Diente and N Eolus bring up the rear. It so happens I climbed Mt Wilson with a partner this year on Sunday 7/6. We saw 6 other people. I know one has since finished and my partner and I should both finish next year. It was clear some of the others had no intention of finishing.

Based on these observations, I would estimate a maximum of 250 per year finish.

Dave

[Sean Nunn]

One angle to consider is to come up with an estimate of how many people climb the LEAST climbed peaks since those people are far more likely to finish. Consider Culebra: This year, the ranch allowed a maximum of 60 climbers per week for 10 weeks IIRC. But they didn't sell out. They probably averaged maybe 45/week. The day we climbed, there were only 8 of us. I know some others climb in winter, so let's use a nice round number of 500 per year climbing Culebra. But not all who climb it will ever finish. For instance, out of the 8 that day, one was finishing with it, another was very close and I was pretty close. My wife and two others would clearly never finish. The other two, I don't know.

But, according to 14ers.com statistics, Culebra is not the least climbed peak. Mt Wilson is the least climbed ranked peak while El Diente and N Eolus bring up the rear. It so happens I climbed Mt Wilson with a partner this year on Sunday 7/6. We saw 6 other people. I know one has since finished and my partner and I should both finish next year. It was clear some of the others had no intention of finishing.

Based on these observations, I would estimate a maximum of 250 per year finish.


Dave

That is a great way to look at it. My guess is that most people get pretty close to the "end" of their 14ers list before they drop $100 to climb Culebra. I know personally I am over halfway through my list and I haven't even thought about "when am I going to do Culebra?" It will probably be one of my last 10.

[GeezerClimber]

[That is a great way to look at it. My guess is that most people get pretty close to the "end" of their 14ers list before they drop $100 to climb Culebra. I know personally I am over halfway through my list and I haven't even thought about "when am I going to do Culebra?" It will probably be one of my last 10.[/quote]

It's now $150! It was my 49th, my wife's 28th. We really enjoyed it but it ain't cheap.

Dave

[rpdawes]

I understand that most climbers declare themselves as 14er finishers once they completed all 58 14ers. Should we also consider whoever completed the official 53 14ers as a 14er finisher since the 5 mountains are not official 14ers due to lack of 300' prominence of a peak?

Food for thoughts!