Wind forecasts and hike planning?

[Alpine]

So while reading some recent posts here on wind speeds, and planning for this weekend’s hike up Mount Lady Washington, I got to thinking: I wonder how close the wind speed forecasts are? How reliable? I am guessing, not very.

For instance, using the link at the top of the page, for Longs Peak, I see:

Today Sunny, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -1. West northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -5. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 29. Wind chill values as low as -4. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 15. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 29. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.
Friday Night A 10 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Windy.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 23. Windy.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 16. Blustery


With projected speeds in the mid-20s and gusts in the mid-40s, it seems like a no-brainer to expect that it could easily go beyond that to un-reasonable levels.

How much attention do YOU pay to this? Until today, for me, for summer I have never considered this as a major factor in my planning – it has always been more of a minor thing. But I guess in winter this becomes more of a primary factor.

[thurs]

I've found some sources do give you a good sense for what winds you will be expecting. Strong, constant winds from the east? Light variable winds with ocassional incredibly strong gusts, with overall wind speeds increasing through the day? I've found the forecasts to give a pretty good picture of that. The exact speed may be a little off but general wind conditions and trends over time have been very helpful and mostly accurate through my experience (2-3 days out max though).

[DanielL]

Similar to thurs, I generally think of the wind forecast as a general trend, and that works pretty well. I've had days where the forecast was spot on, and days where it wasn't close. I remember one day last winter where the weather was forecasting winds in the 40 MPH range, but I enjoyed a totally calm day. I also have gone out with low wind in the forecast and ended up fighting powerful winds all day.

One thing I've found helpful is not just relying on the forecast, but knowing which peaks and areas tend to be more windy. Longs is one of the windiest 14ers, especially during the cold seasons, whereas the southern Sawatch peaks tend to have calmer weather in general. Grays, Humboldt, and Pikes tend to be windy. That sort of idea.

[TomPierce]

Alpine: I do consider forecasted wind speeds, but take those predictions with a grain of salt. Example: I was up in the Longs/Meeker cirque on the 31st, the wind chills were expected down to -24 with the forecasted gusty winds…which never came close to materializing. A gentle breeze at best. But still we were prepared:balaclavas, mitts, goggles, etc. So for several consistently windy peaks I'll launch with gusty winds, but not when the winds are predicted to be over-the-top, i.e. 50 mph>. When it's really gonna blow I just don't want to waste time battling a headwind, getting knocked around, or worse. Been there too many times, to me it's just wasted effort (but good to build experiences…and character ). The winds may not materialize but I'd rather not waste a day just to find out.

But I for sure won't launch with a lot of wind in the forecast on an exposed route, which is the type of stuff I usually prefer. Wind can literally blow you off your feet: I was once training for Denali back in the 90's and we were going up to camp on Grays. Full Denali pack, on skis, towing a sled. It was windy for sure, right in the face. Then I saw the spindrift coming at me like a wall, with a roar to match. The rogue blast of wind picked me off my feet, threw me in the wind backwards 4-5 feet. Completely airborne, and that was on the flats. So I've always thought about those winds (and there have been many other wind events) and realized that no matter how good you are, if you're on an exposed section and a rogue blast nails you it could be a fatal event. Not common for sure, but something I take into consideration depending on the forecast and route.

As for your MLW outing, IMO Longs is pretty readable in the winter. If you see the tops of the trees noticeably swaying while you go up the trail, heads up, and for sure you'll hear high winds in the trees as you ascend. By Jim's Grove you'll have a really good idea of the wind strength, and can decide whether to continue. Have fun!

-Tom

PS: Not sure of your timing but fwiw I'll be in that area Friday.

[Jerousek]

To the OP: Yes, it's a good idea to take wind forecasts into account when planning for a hike or climb. As for second guessing NOAA et al, this I don't recommend. Sure. It will be over/under sometimes, but generally they provide a fairly excellent, reliable baseline for what to expect out there. YMMV, of course.

One thing I didn't see mentioned so far: Check which direction the wind is coming from relative to the aspect of the mountain you'll be climbing. For example, if there are strong winds coming out of the West and you're climbing an Eastern ridge, you can expect relative protection until you reach the summit, or a high feature. Staying with this example, if you're just cragging or climbing an ice feature or something, oftentimes you could be fully protected the entire stay. Stating the obvious, but I've been occasionally surprised to see many of our tribe fail to take wind direction into account, and opt to stay inside instead of picking a different line, or objective, that could let the Mountain mitigate the wind/elements.

[AlexeyD]

So while reading some recent posts here on wind speeds, and planning for this weekend’s hike up Mount Lady Washington, I got to thinking: I wonder how close the wind speed forecasts are? How reliable? I am guessing, not very.

For instance, using the link at the top of the page, for Longs Peak, I see:

Today Sunny, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -1. West northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -5. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 29. Wind chill values as low as -4. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 15. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 29. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.
Friday Night A 10 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Windy.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 23. Windy.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 16. Blustery


With projected speeds in the mid-20s and gusts in the mid-40s, it seems like a no-brainer to expect that it could easily go beyond that to un-reasonable levels.

How much attention do YOU pay to this? Until today, for me, for summer I have never considered this as a major factor in my planning – it has always been more of a minor thing. But I guess in winter this becomes more of a primary factor.

I find the CAIC's Zone Weather Forecasts http://avalanche.state.co.us/forecasts/ ... -forecast/ to be a bit more reliable. It says "forecast for 11,000 feet", which means roughly conditions to expect around treeline. Of course, winds at higher elevations will typically be higher, but this forecast tends to give a good range, rather than the less realistic model-generated numbers you see on NOAA. As for NOAA itself, I find that reading the Technical Discussions gives you the best general idea of what conditions to expect in the region, and the ones for CO tend to place a lot of emphasis on mountain-specific weather, including wind.

[Alpine]

Good insight - thanks to all who replied.

I am just kind of laughing now because I just checked the forecast again for Longs Peak for Saturday:

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of snow before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a west northwest wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to 44 to 49 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph.

So it went from "blustery" on yesterdays forecast for Saturday, to 'strong and damaging winds with gusts as high as 90" .

So maybe not a good day to hit MLW...

[TomPierce]

Alpine,
Agreed. I've already scratched my Longs plans for tomorrow, possibly 65mph winds. Not good when on somewhat exposed rock. Headin' to flatter terrain…

-Tom