Weather/Lightning Forecasting

[kwhit24]

Since moving to Colorado a little under 3 years ago I have picked up on skiing/hiking/biking all of which there isn't much of in Ohio. Along with 14ers.com and other various hiking trail apps during the spring/summer/fall I became an avid reader of The Colorado Daily Snow report that Joel Gratz writes during the snowier parts of the year for skiing. I recently noticed that he is planning to start up a lightning forecast in early June for Colorado 14ers called TrailForecast.com. After reading the stories each year about the injuries and fatalities on 14ers I always try to be weather conscious when and where I start my hikes (I always prefer starting before 5am to beat the crowds anyways).

Anyways....

I'm interested to know what apps or websites fellow hikers look at for pending weather. Last year I had to turn around at about 13,500ish on Massive because random snowy weather. We had to duck behind a boulder just to shield ourselves and decided to turn around before it got worse (I swear the White Walkers were about to come around the corner). Of course, after basically making it back down to the base the clouds parted and sun came out which was perfect for the hikers who started 4 hours after us. I always wish I had had a better idea of the weather but now I have unfinished business.

Hopefully, the weather cooperates this weekend and I can knock out Mt. Princeton for #9.

[XterraRob]

I utilize two different apps when in the back country:

MyRadar - Baseline weather information app to keep you informed when it comes to looking at areas of building precipitation, upper level winds, and even provides an hourly weather forecast. With the low-resolution setting, as long as you can catch a decent cell signal, you can get a quick weather update mid-hike. I also like this app because it shows various peaks in Colorado in case you need good reference points.



RadarScope - This is more for technical weather data visuals but nice to have if you fancy yourself an amateur meteorologist. Lots of things to play around with in this app.. also shows estimated areas of recorded lightning strikes.

[AyeYo]

I'll 2nd My Radar. By far the most up-to-the-minute and accurate radar app I've ever used. One of the primary problems with weather apps is how delayed and/or inaccurate the radar data always seems to be. This one has been great.

[thurs]

I recently noticed that he is planning to start up a lightning forecast in early June for Colorado 14ers called TrailForecast.com.

Joel ran trailforecast last year (I think he is talking about an unrelated app for lightning forecasting he is starting this year that he will announce through trailforecast - iOS only though, so no use to me). Trailforecast was pretty good - basically giving you the run down on whether yes, you need to be at treeline again by noon (this was the forecast 75% of the time), or today you can probably push it later, or today there is a crazy high pressure air mass and you don't have to worry about even seeing any clouds (he would often forecast these a few days in advance, giving time to plan grand traverses or above-treeline backpacking). The forecasts were broken down by ranges, so if things were bad in one range you could adjust your itinerary to hit something else. Usually it put the almost-constant "20% chance of storms after 12pm" NWS forecasts into context.

Here's my strategy as a data-gobblin' youngster. More wise, experienced climbers can feel free to chime in.

Go to NWS, look up the peak in question (you can get point forecasts for the actual massifs, which take into account elevation and orographic factors). Do this the night before, or preferably the morning of.

Read the description. Here's my "ground-truthed" key:

• 0% chance of thunderstorms = it might actually be a clear day (keep an eye on things) - if I verify this forecast with a meteorologist (like Joel) then I feel really good about doing a big committing line like the Maroon Bells traverse or not worrying about hitting the trailhead at 4am. This is the only forecast number that lets me consider getting away with a lazy start.
• 10% chance of thunderstorms after noon = There will likely be storms building by the afternoon, keep your eye out and plan for the typical noontime descent. Not a bad idea to do a big committing line, but don't let your guard down and don't have a lazy start.
• 20% chance of thunderstorms after noon = There will be storms, very likely threatening the summit around or after noon. Plan on the typical noontime descent.
• 30%+ chance of thunderstorms after noon = A storm is going to hit the mountain around noon, plan on it.
• 50%+ chance of storms, or chance of storms BEFORE noon = unsettled weather, conditions will have to be assessed (and continually reassessed) while on the climb. Expect hail, graupel, snow, and other fun stuff as a near certainty.

Yes, the percentages seem to be a bit "low" for my key but this is what I have generally found over the past few years. More often than not, a day with 20% storm chance would have a storm hit the summit in the afternoon. I think "precipitation chance" and "storm chance" numbers are misleading to the layman -- they don't really mean the *chance* of there being a storm, but rather a combination of the chance of precipitation occurring in the forecast area FACTORED WITH the chance of precipitation occurring in the forecast TIME PERIOD. So 10% doesn't really mean that there's only a 10% chance a storm will hit, it could also very well mean that there will likely be a storm hitting that area for maybe an hour's worth of the afternoon. Enough to get some good lightning strikes in. Unfortunately, that automated calculation is obfuscated on the NWS site which is why I like to compare the forecast against what a meteorologist thinks (is that a high chance there will be a short local storm? or a low chance there will be a long widespread storm?)

But here's the main reason why this list is conservative -- it is much easier to plan and observe with the worst-case scenario being known and expected, and revise upwards if observations seem to reflect a different reality. Things always turn out better than expected. This is opposed to trying to work with the forecast, and percentages, and chances, second-guessing every little nuance of what cloud cover is observable at 10:30 am during your attempt at linking three peaks together, and potentially getting it wrong and getting in a dangerous position, or more likely, just frustrating and disappointing yourself that you didn't leave a couple hours earlier.

That's where the most important part comes in -- observing the current weather conditions and being able to infer how conditions are going to change in the next few hours. This is an incredibly useful skill to have when you top out on Shavano at 11:15 and wonder if you could waltz over to Tabeguache, or jog over, or wait another day to do it. The signs of impending storm formation are pretty easy to spot, the cumulus clouds that slowly puff up over the morning begin building dramatically as the edges of the cloud become very sharp and defined...but that is another topic you should definitely read about (Joel also discusses it on trailforecast). Checking the radar doesn't hurt (I don't do this, and defer to the previous posters for the best apps for that purpose)... but since you're interested in this topic, I would definitely seek out more knowledge on weather forecasting in the field (in mountain environments), this will be just as important as having the best doppler app. That's why the conservative numbers in the list above guide me as such -- if I see some worrying cloud development, and the forecast had a 20% chance of storms or more, then I'm planning on lightning occurring within the next couple hours. I would say overall with this method I have avoided more scary storms than I have aborted ascents over a harmless rain shower.

I'm interested to know what apps or websites fellow hikers look at for pending weather. Last year I had to turn around at about 13,500ish on Massive because random snowy weather. We had to duck behind a boulder just to shield ourselves and decided to turn around before it got worse (I swear the White Walkers were about to come around the corner). Of course, after basically making it back down to the base the clouds parted and sun came out which was perfect for the hikers who started 4 hours after us. I always wish I had had a better idea of the weather but now I have unfinished business.

Sometimes you can't avoid this though. I can't think of any combination of forecasting, radar, and meteorological crystal-balling that would give you a confident answer for what to do in that situation. I mean, radar may tell you that the storm is going to pass, but it may not tell you that another storm is going to build up and blow through just thirty minutes later. Best thing to learn it to just truly appreciate your conservative decision, even if it didn't end up being the best solution, because that will get you through so many sticky situations like avalanche danger, storms, and unknown technical climbing routes, cause you just need that one horrible horrible time you had after deciding to eschew what seems like a reasonably cautious decision.

as an aside: How did it get to be like this? I worry about the weather every time I climb now (rightfully so, after being caught above treeline in one too many flash-boom lightning nightmares). Sometimes I envy hiking newbies (only a tiny bit) and their seeming fearlessness to ascend into a dark cloud above treeline. Simpler times!

[Jim Davies]

^ what he said!

I go by the NWS point forecasts, and also check the hourly graphs. Often you'll get periods of a few days straight with no precip at all in the forecast, which are the best times to go on multiday outings if you have that flexibility. If you're stuck climbing on weekends like most 9-5ers, then the best you can do is to see how bad the forecast is and start early and/or bail early if the clouds build up on you. I'd rather depend on my reading of the incoming clouds than a lightning-warning app, but I've never actually used one of those so don't know how good they are. The fact is that not many people really get struck by lightning - you remember the reports because the consequences are high. More deaths are caused by falls, and many falls happen when retreating in bad weather, so keep your cool when the storm hits.

[peter303]

The guy who runs opensnow.com, a site to customize powder day predictions for Colorado ski resorts, said he was intending to create a service for 14er early day thunderstorms. He is a meteorologist who localizes weather forecasts to specific mountains. Its not as easy as you think and takes a lot of intuitive experience.

I myself who has hiked over a hundred 14ers would skip high probability storm days. It just isnt worth the wasted driving.

[GeezerClimber]

I was on Yale last year when a young woman was killed by lightning. All the forecasts were good. One guy I was descending with kept repeating "10% after 2." She was killed not much above timberline about 12:30-1. I had climbed 14ers over 100 times and watched this storm go from being a light sprinkle 4 miles away to a killer in about 15 minutes. When it was maybe 2 miles away, we broke into a run. Fact is, if you climb a lot, you will get caught out sooner or later. Fortunately, deaths from lightning are pretty rare on 14ers, especially considering the number of people up there and the lack of experience most have regarding mountain weather. Any preparation you can do is beneficial but nothing is failsafe. Experience helps too but it's no panacea either as my story tragically illustrates.

Dave

[kwhit24]

Thanks for all the responses! My intent is always just to gather as much knowledge from those who hike more often than myself. I am one of those people restricted to hiking on just the weekends so I want to make the most out of the weekends. The goal is 15 this year (20 if I can find the time). Ultimately, I understand it's kind of a crapshoot when it comes to anticipating what weather will do at a particular peak at 14,000'. It can change fast. When I hiked KC last year I could barely see a thing at the top because it was so foggy and misty but by the time I made it to the top of Challenger it was a blue bird day.

Thanks again for the input and I'll check out those apps (It cant hurt)

[mtree]

It's pretty simple really. Don't over think it. Once you're up there, its all up to you and your most valuable equipment isn't located below your neck.

[AlexeyD]

It so happens that the two practices of weather forecasting and planning on staying safe in the mountains (whether it be avoiding avalanches, lightning, or other hazards) have one very important thing in common. Ultimately, both are based on probability - which is just a fancy way of saying rolling the dice. Or maybe more like playing poker. The point is, the game is to try to stack the odds in your favor. Certainly, the ability to both read and understand weather forecasts, and their implications, is a big part of this. To point to a single tragedy where the outcome was unexpected and couldn't have been predicted, and use that to completely discount the former approach is, my opinion, a logical fallacy. That's like saying that, just because there's always a chance of being hit and killed by a drunk driver on the freeway, you shouldn't drive carefully and wear your seatbelt. Weather forecasts, "noon rules", watching the sky...all those things DO help and DO keep people out of trouble - just not all the time. As long as this second part (that is, probability is not the same as certainty, and taking precautions never GUARANTEES the desired outcome, only makes more likely), then I see nothing wrong with continuing to use a combination of point forecasts, technical discussions and blogs, models (if you know how), real-time radar, and any other tools at your disposal.

FWIW, I've successfully used a radar app to escape an uncharacteristically late-day thunderstorm cell that I couldn't see due to terrain blocking. Doesn't mean it will ALWAYS work, but it does mean it CAN work.