Frustrated by Weather Forecasts

[BuckTurgidson]

I am retired, and have the flexibility of climbing during the week. I want to climb Mt Elbert, but the weather forecasts don't look very good. I would either stay at a hotel in Leadville or camp, and both entail a certain amount of costs/logistics.

Should I pull the trigger and hope for the best, or are the weather forecasts pretty accurate? I hate to sit around missing opportunities, but I don't want to go all the way up there to find unworkable conditions.

What do others do, given the forecast?


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 106.445417" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/ ... casts/4399" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[justiner]

Weather is always fickle in the mountains. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst and have a backup plan. Don't mess with lightning.

[Scott P]

What do others do, given the forecast.

It is extremely rare (less than once a decade) that I go more than a week without doing a hike or climb.

If the weather forecast is too bad for the mountain or destination I originally planned, I hike or climb something else instead. There are plenty of hikes that can be done in Colorado regardless of the weather forecast.

[AlexeyD]

If you have some flexibility in dates, I'd avoid Thursday and Friday. Those are the days when an organized weather system is supposed to move through the state. The rest is more typical summer monsoon conditions, which means you can probably get away with it given an early enough start.

[bergsteigen]

I also have similar flexibility, but this week (especially Thurs & Fri when I want to hike) looks pretty horrid as Alexey mentions. This is usually when I just do something simple and local to get out and deal with whatever weather happens. When the weather looks good, that's when I take advantage of the flex and go for further and longer trips.

[pak]

It is a bit discouraging to plan a trip from Denver to the San Juans, only to be rained out in the end. So, I agree with bergsteigen; plan a few options closer and save the longer trips for a better weather forecast.

[peter303]

A couple of specialty meteorologists were talking about precision thunderstorm forecasts much like opensnow.com does for powder days. I wonder when these will occur?

[atbaritone]

I've found it best to think of "percent chance" in the mountains to mean "amount of time." A 60% chance of rain after noon means it will rain 60% of the time. Not that you have a 60% chance of getting wet, but that you will be rained on for 60% of the time you are out there after noon. Hope this helps you make decisions.

[goingup]

I summitted Capitol Peak with a 70% chance of rain before 11 a.m. and then a 80% chance of storms after 11 a.m. The storms hit at 3 p.m. once we were safely back in the car.

I summited South Maroon with a 70% chance of rain after 12 p.m. The clouds were swirling but nothing ever happened.

I summitted North Maroon with a 70% chance of rain/snow before 11 a.m. and then a guarantee of storms after 11 a.m. We were in the trees about 2 miles from the trailhead when the storm hit.

I believe summits can be attained in the summer despite the forecast by starting super early.

Personally I don't care about getting wet, most concerned with lightning or rain that turns rock on dangerous mountains into a slip and slide. I feel like if you fully listen to the forecast in the summer you won't ever attempt a mountain.

That being said, I back packed in to Ice Lakes Basin with an absolutely dismal forecast swirling around my head and it was accurate. I was only able to summit V2 and I withstood 4 electrical storms while camped at 12,500 (out in the open) by hiding in a cave I found on the side of US Grant.

I wanted badly to climb Ellingwood and Blanca from Zappata Falls on Thursday but I think I am going to wait for a better day because I will be going solo and I don't want to get turned around at Ellingwood, I am hell bent on both.

I think you could climb Elbert on Thursday if you started early enough and kept moving ( :

I try to just use common sense combined with what NOAA says.

[AlexeyD]

I've found it best to think of "percent chance" in the mountains to mean "amount of time." A 60% chance of rain after noon means it will rain 60% of the time. Not that you have a 60% chance of getting wet, but that you will be rained on for 60% of the time you are out there after noon. Hope this helps you make decisions.

I'm sorry, but this is simply not correct. Probability of precipitation (POPs) has nothing to do with duration. What it means is the probability that precipitation will occur at some point in a selected area (based on the center of the forecast area selected), within a given forecast period. In other words, it has to do with areal coverage, but not at all with how long the rain will last.

For more info, see explanation here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AyeYo]

I've found it best to think of "percent chance" in the mountains to mean "amount of time." A 60% chance of rain after noon means it will rain 60% of the time. Not that you have a 60% chance of getting wet, but that you will be rained on for 60% of the time you are out there after noon. Hope this helps you make decisions.

From my understanding, that's exactly what it's supposed to mean. 50% chance of rain doesn't mean a coin toss on whether it'll rain or not, it means it'll be raining for 50% of the forest period.

EDIT: guess that's completely wrong lol

[AlexeyD]

I've found it best to think of "percent chance" in the mountains to mean "amount of time." A 60% chance of rain after noon means it will rain 60% of the time. Not that you have a 60% chance of getting wet, but that you will be rained on for 60% of the time you are out there after noon. Hope this helps you make decisions.

From my understanding, that's exactly what it's supposed to mean. 50% chance of rain doesn't mean a coin toss on whether it'll rain or not, it means it'll be raining for 50% of the forest period.

No, it does not. Please see my comment above.

EDIT: sorry if I sound grumpy, but the dissemination (and repetition) of incorrect information like that literally makes me twitch.