Mount Elbert Forecast

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lindfosz
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Mount Elbert Forecast

Post by lindfosz »

My buddy and I are planning on leaving tomorrow to come hike Elbert on Friday. It's a 10+ hour drive for us to get there and we're starting to have 2nd thoughts based on the weather forecast. This will be both our first 14er and I'm just wondering if someone with a bit more experience could give me a little more insight on what to expect weather wise. It looks like snow and/or rain is likely over the next couple days, will this make the trail more dangerous? I understand mountain weather is fickle and hard to predict, but we would rather not make the drive if their isn't that great of chance to make the summit comfortably.
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rpdawes
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Re: Mount Elbert Forecast

Post by rpdawes »

I would advise you to wait until September as the weather usually gets better. So it will be worth your lengthy trip.
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Count40
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Re: Mount Elbert Forecast

Post by Count40 »

rpdawes spot on. Exactly, September.

Just to add a bit more blab, could be of some use even in September when you come


As for weather on Elbert, this forecast

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/ ... casts/4399" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

translated into some grayish interspersed white coating on the mountainside, with steadier white cover on flat parts and saddles above 13500, thickest on Massive, and much thinner on neighboring summits, including Elbert.
Some other snow day, it could be the other way around.

All usually gone by no later than noon next day, on sunny mornings.

With such amounts of precipitation, you dont have to worry about increasing trail-related risks on class 1 trails like Elbert's.
Even with a couple of inches of slushy snow, walk is not much of a problem. Just wear waterproof footwear with good traction, and maybe spare spikes in backpack, in case portions get "crusty".

There, you only have just your usual concern, lightning. It snowed and flashed today.

And you know what to do about that.


For first 14er, September, when forecast shows sunny both pm and am, no ifs and buts, and, preferably, couple of days in a row, just to avoid surprises and wasted drive.

Inserting this link again, just in case, stories from peaks with different aspects of weather issues (trail related):

http://www.aspentimes.com/news/23569953 ... ues-monday" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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rpdawes
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Re: Mount Elbert Forecast

Post by rpdawes »

Count40 wrote:
For first 14er, September, when forecast shows sunny both pm and am, no ifs and buts, and, preferably, couple of days in a row, just to avoid surprises and wasted drive.
That's exactly what I do faihfully since I am 76 and a very slow hiker.

Weather forecast is very important for any first time 14er climber since you do not know how fast you can hike and how well you can acclimate to high altitude and thin air. That is like entering uncharted territory.
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thurs
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Re: Mount Elbert Forecast

Post by thurs »

NWS forecast discussion...
Thursday...could be the best chance for any svr wx. Models are
currently showing only about 1000 j/kg of CAPE over the southern
Front Range and I-25...but may be slightly underestimating llvl
moisture given the antecedent wet conditions. There will be another
pronounced short wave moving into the Central Rockies by mid-
afternoon. This will contribute to bulk shear of about 30 kts,
enough for some organized convection. The threat for svr should be
greatest over the Pikes Peak Region and Palmer Dvd as storms linger
into Thu evening.

Friday into the weekend...will see the trough begin to become a bit
less amplified, but should still see weakening SW flow aloft
bringing more moisture into southern Colorado. Temps should
gradually be on the rise, with highs near 90 degrees by the latter
part of the weekend and possibly higher as we get into next week.
storm coverage should gradually diminish, with rather dry conditions
possible by late in the period, as high pressure strengthens over
southern Colorado and New Mexico. So, this rainy period will be a
welcome prelude to possible dry and breezy conditions next week.
So: afternoon storms are a certainty, but the weather before then shouldn't be particularly bad. Since you have never done a 14er before, it may very well be a waste of a 10 hour drive if you are unable to summit before noon. It might also not be, as I've seen some athletic flatlanders just fly up and down the mountain on their first 14er. If you want a certain chance, as others have said in the thread, it would be worth waiting until some time in September. My thought is, why not both? :) And why not some other 14ers that are closer?
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AlexeyD
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Re: Mount Elbert Forecast

Post by AlexeyD »

thurs wrote:If you want a certain chance, as others have said in the thread, it would be worth waiting until some time in September. My thought is, why not both? :) And why not some other 14ers that are closer?
Well, per above discussion, things may dry out considerably by early next week. So, may to not have to wait all that long...

On a separate note: it's a bit of meteorological gerrymandering that has put Leadville (and consequently peaks like Elbert, Massive, and La Plata) into the jurisdiction of the Pueblo NWS office. I'm guessing it's because Leadville is technically in the Arkansas River headwaters; however, climatologically, the region probably has as much overlap with the Denver and Grand Junction offices. In truth, none of those 3 capture the mountainous core of Colorado all that well; would be nice to have a fourth office located in a place like...well...Leadville!
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