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Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Colorado wildfires and flooding
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Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby Rcizzle » Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:17 pm

Non monsoonal moisture is forecasted for the next 10 days. It's odd because it is not set up as normal monsoon. The good news is this will provide needed relief for the front range. The bad news is there will be more frequent lightning especially on the dry west slope. This could be the end or the beginning of the end of the large fires on the front. Hopefully it pans out and we have a more normal summer! Stay safe on the mountain tops with forecasted lightning.
Bad decisions make good stories.

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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby Rcizzle » Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:19 pm

Info based on fire weather forecast. I am not liable for being wrong ;)
Bad decisions make good stories.

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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby HikerGuy » Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:39 pm

Looks like a typical monsoonal plume to me, starting on Thursday and running through next Sunday. Not so great for hiking high peaks, but couldn't come soon enough for dampening the fire danger.

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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby Rcizzle » Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:17 pm

It's odd because there is a strong high pressure over new Mexico and Texas that is tapping the same moisture source that "normal" monsoon pattern taps. Usually a typical monsoon pattern sets up with a high pressure ridge over the four corners area, a strong high pressure over the gulf, and a low pressure system sitting off the Baja. Your right there is huge moisture plume coming up, but unless you know something I'm unaware of (which could most definitely be the case) I don't think it's monsoonal. I could be wrong and you may be right. Either way it's inconsequential the mountains should get wet as well as the front range, it's more or less a meteorological discussion.
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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby HikerGuy » Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:27 pm

Yep, it is not the typical setup. There are several patterns (slide 23?) Here's the link from last year's monsoon forecast. I've been looking for this year's forecast, but have not seen it yet.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/bou/showimages/enso_jul-sep_2011_cli_outlook.pdf

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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby Magnum420 » Tue Jul 03, 2012 10:15 am

I could be totally wrong on this but I thought what we have right now is a "typical" early monsoonal flow. I thought the typical set up for monsoonal moisture in CO needs high pressure (clockwise flow) to our southeast and low pressure (counter clockwise flow) to our southwest that channels flow/moisture up from Mexico.

This image taken from your link that shows "Typical Summer Monsoon Pattern for the Southwestern U.S." (Page 24)
Image

This is the upper jet stream map for 7/3/12 from Intellicast
Image

Am I missing something? How is this not a normal monsoonal flow?
"I was high on life till I realized it was cut with idiots!" ---Anon---

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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby Rcizzle » Tue Jul 03, 2012 11:20 am

Our meteorologists are now saying it is monsoonal. You are right hikerguy. Not the typical set up I'm used to seeing and admit I was wrong.
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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby San Juan Ron » Tue Jul 03, 2012 11:29 am

We have been getting the monsoon storms in the San Juans for the past 5-6 days. Higher humidity, higher dew points, and cloud buildup out of the south/southwest every day around 11-12. A nice welcome relief! SJ Ron

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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby apasquel » Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:19 pm

Just curious, is "monsoonal" misleading for the ignorant like myself. When I think monsoons...I think of southeast Asia getting blasted with winds and heavy rains for days. I've been up there in the Summer at least once almost every year for 10+ years and I hear people talking about the monsoons...but I just experience the typical afternoon storm for an hour or two and then it's gone. Is this the monsoon? Since typically there is not much rainfall any other time of the year? Just needs some clarification...and peace of mind that you guys are not in for two months of terrible weather.

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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby Gareth » Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:25 pm

"Most people never run far enough on their first wind to find out they've got a second."
- William James

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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby apasquel » Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:46 pm

I see...it's just a weather pattern...or shift in winds during this time of year. As far as I'm concerned...it's still the typical colorado afteroon thunderstorm. Kind of like our Texas Spring thunderstorms. They usually come fast, hit you hard, destroy a few things, and then move off. And every once in a while...you have a serious storm that makes you clinch your cheeks.

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Re: Wildfire 2012 crossroads

Postby San Juan Ron » Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:56 pm

Pre-monsoon: it was 80 degrees plus all day (sunny, windy and bone dry) without a cloud in the sky.

Today, it's 58 degrees right now at 3 PM with intermittent rain (9500 feet elevation).

It does make a big difference! SJ Ron

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