14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

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Raghavxgopal
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14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by Raghavxgopal »

Hi!
My dad and I were planning on doing Crestone Peak (without the traverse) this coming weekend (8/20-21) but the weather forecasts are looking pretty bad. I decided to look around at some other mountains to try to salvage our trip, but it looks like all forecasts are similar (mid 40s and around 50% chance of precipitation/scattered thunderstorms).

With 14ers and 13ers, (and crestone speicifically if anyone knows) is an overnight backpacking trip still feasible/worthwhile, despite rain and thunderstorms in the weather forecasts?
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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by SchralpTheGnar »

You never know unless you go, the stones would be difficult when wet, some people call that character building, have a backup plan and make good judgment and you’ll have fun
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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by oldschool »

SchralpTheGnar wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:00 pm You never know unless you go, the stones would be difficult when wet, some people call that character building, have a backup plan and make good judgment and you’ll have fun
Well said...

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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by JChitwood »

I used to just go regardless of forecast but I don’t anymore. Especially on backpacks there was a story here last year about an experienced hiker and his daughter who had a bad trip in the Sangres with cold wet weather and had to abandon gear even then barely making it to the car before going hypo. I know that can happen any day in any season but the odds are way better with a good forecast of less than 30% rain and moderate temps. The risk-averse NOAA rarely ever has a forecast of less than 40% storms so if you use them you might not leave the car. This year is ridiculous I can’t remember a monsoon this bad there’s a chance I might not attempt a hike that I know will take more than 6 hours.
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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by lkk8815 »

I wouldn’t cancel yet. Forecasts aren’t very accurate a week out, it’ll keep changing and you won’t have a very clear idea of what weather will be until a day or two before. Especially with these scattered pm storms, they seem hard to forecast accurately unless it’s a big guaranteed storm system. The pm storms have been really consistent this year so you likely will need to be strict about heading down the peak (and ideally off difficult terrain) by noon. I’d plan on going but have a backup plan in case the forecast does end up being bad/unsafe/not fun.

I think you’re more likely to regret not trying and missing out on a great weekend than having a miserable trip, but you should have a better idea mid-week.

And check multiple sources. NOAA will always predict the worst. I check NOAA, mountain forecast, meteoblue, OpenSummit, and weather channel and accuweather for nearby towns. That should help give you a better guess on when/if to expect bad weather to roll in.

Hope it works out for you!
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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by seano »

40-50% isn’t great, and I’d probably reschedule if it’s not too much trouble. But forecasting thunderstorms is hard, and forecasts more than a few days out are often unreliable. Also, most weather models are far too coarse-grained to predict what you will find in the few hours you are above treeline in a particular place.

That’s a long way of saying what Schralp did: if you wait for the perfect forecast, you’ll spend a lot of time at home. Pack a poncho and see what you find.
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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by HikerGuy »

JChitwood wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:52 pm This year is ridiculous I can’t remember a monsoon this bad there’s a chance I might not attempt a hike that I know will take more than 6 hours.
Same. My average hike time has gone from 7 hours to 5.5 hours vs. previous years. I have some big days planned, hoping September comes through with some good weather windows.
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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by DeTour »

As for camping - depending on your plans - my gang has experienced a number of days where we’ve hiked in to camp in the morning/early afternoon, set up before rains hit, and had a nice nap with the soothing putter-patter of rain on the tent. Those afternoon showers often clear out later in the day; we’ve had some beautiful late afternoon-evening times at camp following the storms.

As for climbing - an essential consideration is how fast you realistically can ascend and descend. When I see “dad” I think me - I climb with my daughter and some-in-law - and we have to account for the fact that I’m just kind of slow at my age. Is that the case with you? A camp at South Colony Lakes can shorten your summit climb to about six miles, but it’s still 4,000 feet of gain with two ascents of Broken Hand Pass. I would figure 7-8 hours for that undertaking for me. Set your estimate against the forecast and consider your risks.
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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by two lunches »

lkk8815 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 1:06 pm I wouldn’t cancel yet. Forecasts aren’t very accurate a week out, it’ll keep changing and you won’t have a very clear idea of what weather will be until a day or two before. Especially with these scattered pm storms, they seem hard to forecast accurately unless it’s a big guaranteed storm system.
i don't know if any storm is ever really "guaranteed" any more than a 0% chance is "guaranteed" but it's my understanding that we have two BIG monsoon surges forecasted this week/end, so i'll be doing some re-jiggering, as well. was planning a trip to the Elks and now i see "rain/snow likely, thunder possible" which does not sound like a fun time to camp.
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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by Candace66 »

HikerGuy wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 1:28 pm
JChitwood wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:52 pm This year is ridiculous I can’t remember a monsoon this bad there’s a chance I might not attempt a hike that I know will take more than 6 hours.
Same. My average hike time has gone from 7 hours to 5.5 hours vs. previous years. I have some big days planned, hoping September comes through with some good weather windows.
I thought it was pretty wet this summer, too. But I live in the Southwest nowadays so I'm used to dry, sunny weather most of the time. Interesting to hear others saying it is wet.

I'm also hoping for some drier days before I leave in mid-September. [-o<
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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by JROSKA »

Keep in mind too that when we get past mid-August and there’s a heavy monsoon event like this week, that can often mean a few inches of snow up high.
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Re: 14ers and weather forecasts 8/20/2022

Post by cougar »

JROSKA wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:44 pm Keep in mind too that when we get past mid-August and there’s a heavy monsoon event like this week, that can often mean a few inches of snow up high.
This is definitely a concern, that 10 degree temperature drop makes a big difference up high on the scrambly routes. Can snow in any month. I've hit fresh snow on Huron in mid June, and there have been a few big snows on Longs in August. Already seemed to happen on Mt Wilsojn per conditions report. Now unstable rock and slides are also a concern after a rain.

I've had good luck this summer, but don't want to push it all the time. Chicago Basin was supposed to be a wash-out when I was up there, 80-100% percent chance of storms, but it barely rained and the clouds were more in the distance, got the 4 in one climbing day. It was definitely stormier to the north and east, just happened to miss that spot. Decided not to push my luck this weekend, stayed on easier class 2 closer and was dry, but the trail and vegetation was soaking wet from the previous night. Big downpours in the area an hour later.

This is the one of the wettest and longest monsoon season I can recall, in the mountains at least, it started pretty early in June and keeps going. There's been some dry days, usually late August things tend to dry out. Last year was active too in July, but August was dry. Years ago there used to be more rain in the I-25 corridor in summer, not so much now except for Colorado Springs.

One good thing is no wildfire smoke this summer, a welcome relief.
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