Risk Tolerance - Lightning

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What is your personal risk tolerance with respect to lightning above treeline?

I don't venture above treeline if NWS says there's a chance of rain. I can wait for a better day.
8
7%
If I see a rain cloud, I think pretty seriously about hanging around treeline to watch it develop.
19
17%
Rain is fine, but any thunder at all freaks me out.
44
40%
A few thunder gurgles don't bother me, but if I hear a crackle or a boom I'm turning around or finding shelter.
29
26%
Thunder is just sound. Sound never killed anyone in the mountains.
3
3%
As long as the lightning doesn't hit me, I'm good. Triggering a fight or flight response speeds your pace and sharpens your senses; it's science.
3
3%
I am Zeus. I am the lightning. Singing ice axes are my hymns.
5
5%
 
Total votes: 111
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Salient
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning

Post by Salient »

mtree wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 10:29 pm
I meant no offense. I simply point out the folly and disinformation of your reference. Isolated tall trees are insignificant as to where lightning strikes. A myth that continues to endure. Getting to lower ground is only effective if the lower ground is a safer distance from the storm.

Bad data results in bad decisions. The fact is science knows very little about lightning and how to minimize being zapped. The only undisputed solution is to get as far away from lightning as quickly as possible. In other words, increase your distance AWAY from the source as fast as possible. That or enclose yourself in a protective shelter... which is rarely possible while hiking. And lets not get into the how or why the enclosure is effective. That's another discussion.
Genuinely wtf are you on about? The NOAA is like the best reference there is and I challenge you to find a better one. While it may be your choice to disregard the facts presented by scientists. It’s another thing to call someone else out for misinformation using what you perceive as “facts” that could easily put someone in danger. Of course you aren’t wrong about getting away from the thunderstorm is the safest option. The issue is that’s not always an easy option when you’re already up on a mountain. I’m only 16 and I can see through your BS.
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning

Post by highpilgrim »

nyker wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 4:36 am Shockingly as we were running down the hill, along with the guys who's hair was still standing up, several people were happily ascending at the same time.
I had an almost identical experience on Sunshine and Redcloud. We were at the saddle on the way back when my poles started humming, the back of my neck was being stung by static, and the woman I was hiking near had her hair standing straight out and up. Obviously, we began running to the summit to get back up and then down, the whole time seeing strikes on the peaks adjacent. Notably, this storm built from a cloudless sky in the 30 minutes it took to hike from one peak to the next along the ridge. Zero to thunder in less than 45 minutes.

It took about 50 minutes moving as quickly as we could to get into timber and feel slightly more safe with the storm still booming.

Idiots were still going up while commenting about why their hair felt funny and was standing on end. :shock:
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning

Post by bdloftin77 »

LoneStar wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 5:38 pm
bdloftin77 wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 8:18 pm Ha, you forgot the “Depends on how close I am to the summit” option. 😅
If the severity of the storm impacts one's ability to control, um, bodily functions, your sentence might read, "Depends on. How close am I to the summit?"
Haha! But in all seriousness, I voted the “rain is okay, but thunder is no bueno” category. If I do hear it above treeline, it’s back to the trees I go where it’s (generally) safer. Fortunately, I haven’t had any static or hair-standing-on-end experiences yet.
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning

Post by mtree »

Salient wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 5:24 am
mtree wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 10:29 pm
I meant no offense. I simply point out the folly and disinformation of your reference. Isolated tall trees are insignificant as to where lightning strikes. A myth that continues to endure. Getting to lower ground is only effective if the lower ground is a safer distance from the storm.

Bad data results in bad decisions. The fact is science knows very little about lightning and how to minimize being zapped. The only undisputed solution is to get as far away from lightning as quickly as possible. In other words, increase your distance AWAY from the source as fast as possible. That or enclose yourself in a protective shelter... which is rarely possible while hiking. And lets not get into the how or why the enclosure is effective. That's another discussion.
Genuinely wtf are you on about? The NOAA is like the best reference there is and I challenge you to find a better one. While it may be your choice to disregard the facts presented by scientists. It’s another thing to call someone else out for misinformation using what you perceive as “facts” that could easily put someone in danger. Of course you aren’t wrong about getting away from the thunderstorm is the safest option. The issue is that’s not always an easy option when you’re already up on a mountain. I’m only 16 and I can see through your BS.
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning

Post by Eli Watson »

Great responses so far, thanks everyone. I admit that I trend towards the speedy boi side of decision-making, where if I'm on easy terrain I know I can descend a lot of elevation in a short amount of time. Of course if I'm on loose class 2 / 2+ or especially class 3 and above I weigh that heavily into my ability to descend or escape to a point of shelter.

I have only seen lightning above treeline twice: once while car camping near Castle Creek Rd I awoke at 4 AM in August 2018 to Tchaikovsky-esque booming thunder in the high country with lots of lightning, the second was on Redcloud at about 7 PM in September 2019. I heard some growls that were faint enough I couldn't tell if they were thunder or airplanes overhead. Having already summited Handles that afternoon, getting Redcloud and Sunshine were just bonus points and I accepted conservative decision-making was the name of the game that night. There weren't any nasty clouds above me, so I pressed on. Then where that first big switchback turns you facing NE after you've been heading SW from the 13,000' saddle, I saw something in the corner of my eye so I stopped. Sure enough less than a minute later there was a small arc across the sky probably 5+ miles off to the NE. Immediate about-face and dropped 1000' very quickly on the easy trail up there. I never could figure out the direction of weather out there with the amorphous nature of the San Juan compared to the much more predictable linear ranges in the state, so it's entirely possible that storm may have missed me. Maybe I could have tagged Redcloud real quick, but I didn't feel confident I could get Sunshine. Nothing gnaws at me more than orphaning the Conundrums, Oxfords, and Tabeguaches up there so I figured I'd rather get zero peaks and play it safe than chance it and still have to go back up again for the combo.

This past weekend was certainly my most aggressive decision-making. After a failed attempt wallowing through punchy tree suck to get to the north side of Lackawanna Gulch only to find no overnight freeze, I figured I could blast up the 3.5 mi RT, dry, S Slopes before the evening storms rolled in. By the time I was 500' from the summit I had heard some growls and been hailed on so I hauled it up, took 2 pictures and a pano, then ran down as fast as I could. Despite being an on-and-off cloudy day the SW Gully probably wouldn't have been the safest course of action at 5 PM, but I decided if I saw lightning I would risk sliding down it to expedite my descent. I put a couple feet on it on the way up to test it before I decided the slope was faster so I had an idea of what to expect. Luckily I never needed to, and I was well below the trees before I heard any crackles - man oh man are those powerful. Even bashing through the willows and aspens a half mile from the road I didn't feel entirely safe until I was back in the car. I never noticed any flashes and I never had my head facing the sky long enough to pay attention, but I'd be okay with that being my gnarliest storm experience.
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning

Post by Above_Treeline »

One time it said 0% chance of rain on one excellent site. I.looked out and you guessed it. Rain. 17% chance last night. Rain. I mean it's difficult to predict.

And I haven't been at this long but it can rain before noon. Talked to some people coming down from kroenke lake at one point said they got rained on at 10 am. Saw some guys coming down from Yale maybe 1pm close to TH got iced out or something. I doubt the people in the afternoon had much trouble.

Some storms just have more lighting. I've hung out in the trees etc before, lightning not too bad, and summited once nature shot it's wad. Easier on 12ers and 13ers since treeline closer to the summit. But I'm in E TX and we had a storm in 2007 I'm sitting inside pretty much as far from windows as I can get. It hit a tree next to the house and fried something in the AC. Blew a flat panel light switch across the room in the room I was sitting. A lot of people lost stuff in that storm in their houses. Under 500 ft here still get lighting. Especially that storm. Yikes. But I'd still rather be in the trees climbing during a storm compared to an exposed ridge. One time I picked a spot less exposed, shorter trees, not much lighting in the storm anyway to wait it out. But getting caught in the woods in a lightning storm here not real fun all the trees look tall lol. Seeing lighting while sitting in aluminum boat in the lake not super fun either :)
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning

Post by EatinHardtack »

d_baker wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 7:33 pm
EatinHardtack wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 5:08 pm Hahahaha. Bill and Otina can attest to my hate for lightning. Was caught with both of them on Silverheels and Pikes Peak a few years ago in lightning storms.

It gave me PTSD, not lying. Have sweating, anxiety, mental breakdown when I start seeing clouds building now. It’s really hindered my climbing the last few years.
Hahaha...so what happens at work?!
First one in the shop bro! Watch the storms on radar!
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Re: Risk Tolerance - Lightning

Post by Above_Treeline »

I mean the other thing is I'm up in Colorado hiking all worried about lightning and rightfully so. But then I get home and walk in the woods and had the closest call poisonous snake all summer!!! Less than 5 minutes in the woods! So I mean theres often risks
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