Battle of the forecast models...
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- denvermikey
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Battle of the forecast models...
I have been a big proponent of mountain-forecast.com when checking out weather for upcoming hikes. It has been fairly reliable for me. Not 100% for sure, but not too far off.
We are planning on doing a couple of 13ers just north of Mt Sherman tomorrow. When I bring up my two usual sources, NOAA (linked from this site) and Mountain-forecast.com for Mt Sherman, I get two different stories. NOAA calls for a chance of rain storms before 9, then pretty much game on for storms after then. Mountain-forecast calls for mostly clear skies in the morning with the storms starting around noon. See attachments below. The 13ers we are doing are very low commitment and fairly short so if the weather turns bad we can bail easily.
Will report tomorrow to see which forecast is more accurate.
Anyone else notice this big a difference in the two sites for forecast tomorrow?
We are planning on doing a couple of 13ers just north of Mt Sherman tomorrow. When I bring up my two usual sources, NOAA (linked from this site) and Mountain-forecast.com for Mt Sherman, I get two different stories. NOAA calls for a chance of rain storms before 9, then pretty much game on for storms after then. Mountain-forecast calls for mostly clear skies in the morning with the storms starting around noon. See attachments below. The 13ers we are doing are very low commitment and fairly short so if the weather turns bad we can bail easily.
Will report tomorrow to see which forecast is more accurate.
Anyone else notice this big a difference in the two sites for forecast tomorrow?
- Attachments
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- Screen Shot 2021-07-23 at 7.32.31 PM.png (41.72 KiB) Viewed 2383 times
"Every man dies, not every man really lives" - William Wallace
"Because it's there" - George Mallory
"In the end it's not the years in your life that count, it's the life in your years" - Abraham Lincoln
"You only live once but if you do it right, once is enough" - Mae West
"Climb mountains not so the world can see you, but so you can see the world." - David McCullough Jr.
"Because it's there" - George Mallory
"In the end it's not the years in your life that count, it's the life in your years" - Abraham Lincoln
"You only live once but if you do it right, once is enough" - Mae West
"Climb mountains not so the world can see you, but so you can see the world." - David McCullough Jr.
- jfm3
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...
I've been checking Crestone Peak all week and noticed the same thing. I have no idea where MountainForecast gets their information. This week MF and NOAA are completely different. I'm going with NOAA. The forecast looks much better starting on Monday.
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- greenonion
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...
I've seen someone on here fairly recently describe Mountain Forecast as somewhat overly optimistic, in general, and NOAA somewhat a bit more on the pessimistic side, and I agree. Would rather go with the more careful of the two.
Re: Battle of the forecast models...
I've really never seen Mountain Forecast be that accurate. It always seems overly optimistic. I tried going with it for a few weeks, went back to NOAA and Chris Tomer whenever he posted. Far more accurate.
"Climbing mountains is the only thing I know that combines the best of the physical, spiritual, and emotional world all rolled into one." -Steve Gladbach
Re: Battle of the forecast models...
OpenSummit has been the most accurate from what I’ve seen. I typically cross check NOAA here on 14ers, mountain forecast, OpenSummit, and then weather.com for the closest mountain town to wherever I’m going. Opensummit is usually the closest to spot on and it gives you a nice layout of the important things for outdoor activities in an hourly format (cloud cover, temp, precip, lightning, wind). Worth the cost IMO for the accuracy.
- disentangled
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...
Reading the weather is a game of interpretation. You have to take all the information, collate it, and draw conclusions. I usually decide to just "go and find out".
Re: Battle of the forecast models...
I’ve been using Mountain Forecast the past few winters, it’s generally been pretty accurate and helpful.
- yaktoleft13
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...
Which one was right today? I was debating going to the sangres but bailed due to weather/other reasons. How has the day turned out relative to the models?
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...
Ditto. It's freakin' weather! Sure, look at a forecast but don't be surprised at inaccuracy, just part of the game. If the forecast is off I either suck it up (hike in the rain/sleet) or opt for Plan B, whatever that might be.
-Tom
Re: Battle of the forecast models...
Somebody on here recommended spotwx.com and I've been relying on it since. CAIC in the winter.
Traveling light is the only way to fly.
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- denvermikey
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Re: Battle of the forecast models...
Well here is a summary of what was predicted versus what actually happened.
NOAA predicted - rain showers likely before 9, then showers and thunderstorms the rest of the day. Mostly cloudy, winds 10-15 mph.
MF predicted - Mostly clear skies in the morning, no rain or storms until afternoon, light winds 5 mph most of the morning.
Here is what reality was:
No rain all morning (didn't even start to sprinkle until we were leaving Fairplay around noon) - MF gets the check here
Hardly any sun all morning - NOAA gets the check here
The wind was ridiculous - Slight nod to NOAA with their higher wind speed forecast, but in reality it was 20+ mph constant.
Winner? Nothing definitive. This is one day's sample in one small specific area. If you were more concerned about the rain and storms (which I was) then MF was more accurate.
NOAA predicted - rain showers likely before 9, then showers and thunderstorms the rest of the day. Mostly cloudy, winds 10-15 mph.
MF predicted - Mostly clear skies in the morning, no rain or storms until afternoon, light winds 5 mph most of the morning.
Here is what reality was:
No rain all morning (didn't even start to sprinkle until we were leaving Fairplay around noon) - MF gets the check here
Hardly any sun all morning - NOAA gets the check here
The wind was ridiculous - Slight nod to NOAA with their higher wind speed forecast, but in reality it was 20+ mph constant.
Winner? Nothing definitive. This is one day's sample in one small specific area. If you were more concerned about the rain and storms (which I was) then MF was more accurate.
"Every man dies, not every man really lives" - William Wallace
"Because it's there" - George Mallory
"In the end it's not the years in your life that count, it's the life in your years" - Abraham Lincoln
"You only live once but if you do it right, once is enough" - Mae West
"Climb mountains not so the world can see you, but so you can see the world." - David McCullough Jr.
"Because it's there" - George Mallory
"In the end it's not the years in your life that count, it's the life in your years" - Abraham Lincoln
"You only live once but if you do it right, once is enough" - Mae West
"Climb mountains not so the world can see you, but so you can see the world." - David McCullough Jr.
Re: Battle of the forecast models...
Most outlets were forecasting widespread storms and rain early, with a double monsoon causing storms to linger,, and most areas in the northern 2/3 got nothing.
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"If we don't change direction, we'll end up where we're going."
"Bushwhacking is like a box of chocolates - you never know what you're gonna get."
"Don't give up on your dreams, stay asleep"