Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

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vaildog
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Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by vaildog »

It seems like this was a big deal years ago, but it rarely rains in the summer anymore. Should summiting early still be considered a best practice?
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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by 12ersRule »

It never rains in Southern California any more, but it still rains here most summers.


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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by Urban Snowshoer »

vaildog wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:22 pm It seems like this was a big deal years ago, but it rarely rains in the summer anymore. Should summiting early still be considered a best practice?
Although it's been dry in recent years, it still can (and does) rain in the summer, not to mention the fact that you can get lightning without rain, so the short answer is yes.

Be prepared to start early unless you have a very high degree of confidence that there won't be any kind of storms on the day you intend to climb--getting caught in a lightning storm above treeline is not a situation you want to find yourself in.
Last edited by Urban Snowshoer on Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by HikerGuy »

We are still subject to the North American Monsoon in the summer. Activity level varies year to year, but thunderstorm activity in the mountains will be a given in Colorado. Summiting early is forecast dependent, but is highly advisable if a chance of storms is predicted. I think most everyone who has been caught in an electrical storm would never like to repeat the experience.
Last edited by HikerGuy on Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by Urban Snowshoer »

HikerGuy wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:59 pm I think most everyone who has been caught in an electrical storm would never like to repeat the experience.
Though it wasn't on a 14er or above treeline, getting caught in an electrical storm in an open area some years ago has forever instilled the importance of starting early when heading above treeline.

As experience it's 0/10, not recommended.

Seriously, for those who've never been through it, try to keep it that way--it's not an experience you want to have.
Last edited by Urban Snowshoer on Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by Monster5 »

I agree afternoon thunderstorms are still a concern, but they seem to be less and less a concern over the past several years.

In practice, I just wait out the 20-minute squall in the rare event it actually hits and then continue climbing. That used to be the exception to the rule, but it seems to be standard nowadays. I've still sat through enough terrifying storms to start early and keep a close eye on the weather and reasonable bail options though.
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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by Jon Frohlich »

Urban Snowshoer wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:18 pm Though it wasn't on a 14er or above treeline, getting caught in an electrical storm in an open area some years ago has forever instilled the importance of starting early when heading above treeline.

As experience it's 0/10, not recommended.

Seriously, for those who've never been through it, try to keep it that way--it's not an experience you want to have.
I've only gotten caught in a nasty storm a handful of times but I don't care to repeat any of them. I second the 0/10 review. Wondering if the next lightning bolt is aimed at you is not fun. Just start early unless the forecast is great.
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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by Dave B »

Monsoon precip has indeed decreased, at least in the last 8-9 years (data from CO snotels). 2020 was (likely) the local minimum for what appears to be 10-15 year cycle of fluctuating monsoon precip, possibly due to to ENSO.

In 2020, I don't remember alpine starts seeming very necessary. It was also the year of Cameron Peak, Mullen, East Troublesome, and Pine Gulch fires - the four largest fires in CO history. A couple other large fires look to sync up with, or follow, monsoon minima e.g. High Park and the West Fork in 2012/2013 and the Hayman fire in 2002.

EDIT - y-axis is mm not cm
Monsoon precip.jpg
Monsoon precip.jpg (51.86 KiB) Viewed 1316 times
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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by Urban Snowshoer »

Dave B wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 4:07 pm Monsoon precip has indeed decreased, at least in the last 8-9 years (data from CO snotels). 2020 was (likely) the local minimum for what appears to be 10-15 year cycle of fluctuating monsoon precip, possibly due to to ENSO.

In 2020, I don't remember alpine starts seeming very necessary. It was also the year of Cameron Peak, Mullen, East Troublesome, and Pine Gulch fires - the four largest fires in CO history. A couple other large fires look to sync up with, or follow, monsoon minima e.g. High Park and the West Fork in 2012/2013 and the Hayman fire in 2002.

EDIT - y-axis is mm not cm

Monsoon precip.jpg
The bigger concern is lightning--whether or not you can proceed in rain is a case by case basis but lightning is definite no go.

Lightning can com with rain or be "dry" (no precipitation). The latter is how more than a few wildfires have started.

If there is a risk of lightning, you want to do everything you can to not be above treeline or other open areas when it hits.
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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by Dave B »

Urban Snowshoer wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 5:51 pm
The bigger concern is lightning--whether or not you can proceed in rain is a case by case basis but lightning is definite no go.

Lightning can com with rain or be "dry" (no precipitation). The latter is how more than a few wildfires have started.

If there is a risk of lightning, you want to do everything you can to not be above treeline or other open areas when it hits.
The problem is, there is not good long-term record of lighting in the mountains. So, given that almost all monsoon-period precip comes from convective storms (i.e. thunderstorms) precip records make a pretty good proxy for lightning activity.
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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by Phill the Thrill »

vaildog wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:22 pm It seems like this was a big deal years ago, but it rarely rains in the summer anymore. Should summiting early still be considered a best practice?
I suffered an electric shock from lightning while descending Mt Columbia last summer, so for me ... yeah.
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Re: Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

Post by Jorts »

vaildog wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:22 pm It seems like this was a big deal years ago, but it rarely rains in the summer anymore. Should summiting early still be considered a best practice?
You're trolling right?
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