Are afternoon thunderstorms still a concern?

[cedica]

You're trolling right?

As Jimi would have said "(I want to show you Colorado) Good and evil lay side by side, while electric love penetrates the sky".

[mtree]

It seems like this was a big deal years ago, but it rarely rains in the summer anymore. Should summiting early still be considered a best practice?

You're trolling right?

I was wondering the same thing.
... so I swallowed my initial snarky response.

[vaildog]

It seems like this was a big deal years ago, but it rarely rains in the summer anymore. Should summiting early still be considered a best practice?

You're trolling right?

Nope it seems like AGW has changed the patterns significantly when it comes to mountain weather. Been climbing since the 80s and it's very noticeable how the pattern of thunderstorms almost daily on the peaks is now longer prevalent.

[jibler]

seems like this is more a question about monsoons - and if they are Really Kicking In during a given summer


because they don't seem to swamp out every single afternoon like they used to. but i suppose still can.



i was reading that La Nina's are much more common / pervasive last 20 years? or is it el nino's??

i forget which one.

[two lunches]

i was reading that La Nina's are much more common / pervasive last 20 years? or is it el nino's??

i forget which one.

Jib this article from the Denver Post might answer your question-

There is not a drastic correlation when talking about the impacts of severe weather during a La Niña spring but there are some notable points that line up with the thinking mentioned above. Nationally, some of the most active severe weather seasons in the last 30 years happened during La Niña years: 2011, 2008, 1998 and 1995 all brought big severe weather impacts while La Niña was ongoing.

Out of the top 10 years with the most severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in Colorado, seven of those years were La Niña years and three of them were El Niño years.

Also, something to note, some of our top producing severe weather years have all happened since 2000. When we look nationally, during a La Niña, there’s a severe weather bullseye across Texas, Arkansas and Oklahoma.


For Colorado, there is no damning evidence that we’re going to have a notably heightened severe weather season due to the continuing La Niña, but there are differences that we can spot.

Severe weather tends to be slightly suppressed statewide when a El Niño is present. While Colorado is not multiple nodes away from what is normal in a La Niña pattern, we do trend toward the more frequent side of things when talking about tornadoes. Mountain locations and southern Colorado tend to have slightly more hail concerns during a La Niña pattern. Temperatures and precipitation could also be impacted by this continuing La Niña, but the effects aren’t as notable as they are in the winter months. In the warmer months, ENSO tends to have more impacts on the hurricane season than anything else. With that said, long-range forecasts from April through June are showing signs of being drier and warmer across all of Colorado.


What the above images show is that the time period between April, May and June is expected to be a half-inch to an inch drier than normal. At this same time, we could expect temperatures to be near a degree warmer than normal.

Of course, time will tell but when looking at previous severe weather years, previous La Niña years and long-range forecasts, there’s no reason to heavily doubt the possibility that this severe weather season may be a bit more active than normal in and around Colorado this year.

https://www.denverpost.com/2022/04/09/c ... e-weather/

[peter303]

66% Longs deaths by falls, 5% lightning.

(The largest database http://rockymountainhikingtrails.blogsp ... -peak.html)

I wouldnt be surprised if some of those falls were on rain-slick rock; perhaps more than lightning deaths.

[HikerGuy]

Yeah, the actual risk of dying from a lightning strike is extremely low. My concern is being forced into a hasty retreat on terrain where a fall is consequential. That is how you are most likely to die during a storm.

[Scott P]

Yeah, the actual risk of dying from a lightning strike is extremely low.

Not on top of a peak during a thunderstorm. The only reason a lot more people aren't killed on peaks during lightning storms is because few people are on top of a peak at such times.

I don't know what the odds would be if you stay on top of a peak during thunderstorm, but either way it's too risky for my tastes.

[HikerGuy]

Yeah, the actual risk of dying from a lightning strike is extremely low.

Not on top of a peak during a thunderstorm. The only reason a lot more people aren't killed on peaks during lightning storms is because few people are on top of a peak at such times.

I don't know what the odds would be if you stay on top of a peak during thunderstorm, but either way it's too risky for my tastes.

I was assuming that if caught in a storm, you would be actively trying to better your position. Yes, standing on top of a peak, not seeking cover, etc. would increase your risk. The bottom line is folks get killed from falls when trying to quickly descend vs. actually being struck by lighting. I can think of a couple off the top of my head. A father and daughter caught on Missouri, they descended a couloir to get off the ridge and fell to their death. A couple on the Ellingwood Arete fell and/or were swept off during a storm.

[mtree]

Yeah, the actual risk of dying from a lightning strike is extremely low.

Not on top of a peak during a thunderstorm. The only reason a lot more people aren't killed on peaks during lightning storms is because few people are on top of a peak at such times.

I don't know what the odds would be if you stay on top of a peak during thunderstorm, but either way it's too risky for my tastes.

I was assuming that if caught in a storm, you would be actively trying to better your position. Yes, standing on top of a peak, not seeking cover, etc. would increase your risk. The bottom line is folks get killed from falls when trying to quickly descend vs. actually being struck by lighting. I can think of a couple off the top of my head. A father and daughter caught on Missouri, they descended a couloir to get off the ridge and fell to their death. A couple on the Ellingwood Arete fell and/or were swept off during a storm.

Who knows if more people will be killed on top of a peak vs. wherever else? No data to track. Most of what we "know" about lightning strikes is based on theories, bad science and myths. The fact is, it probably doesn't matter if you're on the tip top of the summit, the ridgeline, the gully below, or in the trees. We don't know where the lightning will strike or why. Being IN the lightning storm definitely increases your chances of getting hit. I haven't heard of anyone hit by lightning when there was no lightning.

You are insignificant in a lightning storm. Like an ant when someone walks by. Maybe you'll get stepped on, maybe not. You can be holding a golf club, metal rake, or sitting on an iron grate and it won't matter one bit. The only thing that matters is the amount of ground strikes hitting in your area. Simple statistics. I've been in a lightning storm several times on the summit. Harvard, Sherman, Missouri, and Tabeguache (twice). I've been in lightning storms many times on ridgelines, countless times above treeline and countless times in trees below. So far so good.

The closest a strike hit next to me was in the trees less than 20 ft away. Once just off a ridgeline, but not sure how close. Another time escaping Pacific Peak just below Mohawk Lake running like crazy to nowhere. An angler saw it hit to the side of me! (He told me later.) I've had tingling, sparks, ringing ears, hair on end, and static around me. None of it very pleasant. Nowadays its far less often I get caught in a storm, but still happens on occasion. I try to get my climb done before the storms. Guess I'm not as brave anymore. So, for the OP, yeah... I'd stick with the tried and true. No lightning won't kill you.

[jibler]

don't forget that we do not lead the nation in lightning deaths - not even close


Florida is ridiculously high

this is 1990 to 2003 - but the general patterns hold true today i believe




and if flat Florida has that many lightning deaths - I think it would stand to reason that being on the top of a mountain is not necessarily a great predictor of being in more danger than other locations.

and I seem to recall that many CO deaths are actually from people in parks in the cities too.


Not that i want to put this theory to the test - i get late starts anyway so I am often running for my life from high country storms

[constipated_pete]

Who knows if more people will be killed on top of a peak vs. wherever else? No data to track. Most of what we "know" about lightning strikes is based on theories, bad science and myths. The fact is, it probably doesn't matter if you're on the tip top of the summit, the ridgeline, the gully below, or in the trees. We don't know where the lightning will strike or why. Being IN the lightning storm definitely increases your chances of getting hit. I haven't heard of anyone hit by lightning when there was no lightning.

You are insignificant in a lightning storm. Like an ant when someone walks by. Maybe you'll get stepped on, maybe not. You can be holding a golf club, metal rake, or sitting on an iron grate and it won't matter one bit. The only thing that matters is the amount of ground strikes hitting in your area. Simple statistics. I've been in a lightning storm several times on the summit. Harvard, Sherman, Missouri, and Tabeguache (twice). I've been in lightning storms many times on ridgelines, countless times above treeline and countless times in trees below. So far so good.

The closest a strike hit next to me was in the trees less than 20 ft away. Once just off a ridgeline, but not sure how close. Another time escaping Pacific Peak just below Mohawk Lake running like crazy to nowhere. An angler saw it hit to the side of me! (He told me later.) I've had tingling, sparks, ringing ears, hair on end, and static around me. None of it very pleasant. Nowadays its far less often I get caught in a storm, but still happens on occasion. I try to get my climb done before the storms. Guess I'm not as brave anymore. So, for the OP, yeah... I'd stick with the tried and true. No lightning won't kill you.

Crazy! Most of what we know isn't from bad science and myths... electric fields are stronger along ridge lines and holding conducting materials high above your head will increase the possibility of lighting choosing you as its path to the ground. This is a refreshing spew of BS on a Friday afternoon.