New to 14ers, leery of weather

FAQ and threads for those just starting to hike the Colorado 14ers.
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madbuck
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Re: New to 14ers, leery of weather

Post by madbuck »

In addition to the advice above, I'd add that the hourly forecast, on weather underground or others (esp. closer to ~1 day out) can be useful for more granularity.
You may see "n% chance of storms, mainly after.."
"10 am"
"12pm"
"1pm"
"2pm"

Of course, while they are probabilistic estimates, "10am" vs. "2pm" can make a difference in planning.
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GeezerClimber
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Re: New to 14ers, leery of weather

Post by GeezerClimber »

I'm not a morning person, so I've rarely made it to timberline before noon. Summer forecasts will almost always have some chance of storms. Even good forecasts can be off. I always carry rain gear and warm layers even if there is supposedly 0% chance. Two years ago, I was descending Yale (for the 6th time) and watched a storm form very quickly a few miles away on the divide and then move towards us. I ran from about 13K to below the trees and a bolt struck maybe 200 yards above me. Later I learned a woman was killed. The forecast was for "10% after 2." She was killed about 1 o'clock. Experience helps in reading weather but I don't know of anyone who has spent much time up high who hasn't gotten caught out at some point. Many people think lightning is the biggest killer but, in reality, deaths from lightning are pretty rare. Gravity and getting lost kill far more. Even so, dodging lightning bolts isn't much fun!

Bottom line, if you wait for a perfect forecast, you won't get many chances. Just be prepared to abandon a climb when the mountain turns angry. I've seen far too many newbies continue on when all the experienced climbers already threw in the towel.

Dave
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Timothy
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Re: New to 14ers, leery of weather

Post by Timothy »

GeezerClimber wrote:I ran from about 13K to below the trees and a bolt struck maybe 200 yards above me. Later I learned a woman was killed. The forecast was for "10% after 2." She was killed about 1 o'clock. Experience helps in reading weather but I don't know of anyone who has spent much time up high who hasn't gotten caught out at some point. Many people think lightning is the biggest killer but, in reality, deaths from lightning are pretty rare. Gravity and getting lost kill far more. Even so, dodging lightning bolts isn't much fun!
All good points. Something else to consider is the fact that when somebody gets into trouble on a mountain, it often takes a bunch of other somebodies to get them out of trouble. I remember the day the woman was struck and killed on Yale, my daughter and I were driving through Buena Vista after summiting Elbert and heard the news on the radio.
שְׁמַע יִשְׂרָאֵל יְהוָה אֱלֹהֵינוּ יְהוָה אֶחָֽד׃‎
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