When to turn around

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mgl45
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Re: When to turn around

Post by mgl45 »

Thanks much everyone for sharing your perspectives! It was very helpful to hear.
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Bale
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Re: When to turn around

Post by Bale »

After topping out.
The earth, like the sun, like the air, belongs to everyone - and to no one. - Edward Abbey
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Barnold41
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Re: When to turn around

Post by Barnold41 »

Before you hear thunder. I find it helpful to be with a partner or partners who have a similar understanding of weather, route, etc. It usually comes down to one or both of us having a bad feeling and not believing weather windows will happen. It also helps to have a bailout option for when weather comes in quickly, which it usually does. I don't like to be on non-bailout routes (IE: big, exposed ridges) for days other than bluebirds.

I'm definitely more cautious when I'm solo, to be honest. My favorite quote that I try to live by in the alpine is "the mountains aren't going anywhere."
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Harrison1991
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Re: When to turn around

Post by Harrison1991 »

You should read “No Shortcuts to the top” by Ed Viesturs. The dude is a rockstar, and so humble. He turned back twice on Annapurna, and the twice on Everest, before summiting. I learned a lot from reading his book
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Re: When to turn around

Post by ltlFish99 »

We were on niwot ridge heading to Navajo peak one morning. We got to the ridge top on the eastern end about 9:30. There were huge towering cumulus clouds directly above Navajo peak. The ridge isn't very difficult, but kinda slow, especially with 10 plus people.
The clouds were getting larger quickly and it did not look good.

Less than an hour later, it started raining, then a little hail.
At this point, everyone was concerned including myself, so we all agreed that as soon as we came upon a reasonable descent route off the ridge, we would go down.
Fortunately, we found one soon and went down to our left, north into the valley.
As we approached the valley floor the lightning started.
10 minutes later lightning struck a wall of rock less than 200 feet in front of us.
It was odd. Nothing but an intense white flash, no delay until very loud thunder.
Several people including myself commented that it felt like you could feel the thunder.
Since we could not descend more, we simply kept hiking out.
We came upon a huge porcupine which was wonderful and brightened everyone's mood.

For me, it was a lesson.
Roach is right, again.
When it comes to lightning, physics wins.... Always.
I've had the ice ax buzzing like a small saw experience more than once.
With my hair sticking straight out in all directions.
That does not happen anymore.
I leave the trailhead an hour, or two before sunrise, and will watch cloud formation, storm movement, etc.
But I will certainly turn around prior to hearing my ax buzz.
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Re: When to turn around

Post by oldschool »

Turn around....

When you are no longer ok with the risks you are taking. (yes..some take bigger risks than others)
When your partner needs to turn around. (it is their decision, not yours)
When you lose your confidence to make good choices. (most of the time good choices lead to the possibility for second chances, if needed)

A recent conversation with a friend had this same question in it. I believe that a climb, a task, a goal, a challenge is way more mental than physical. Don't get me wrong..physical helps. As the saying goes...."whether you think you can or you can't, you're correct".

I have done things that took/take commitment. I do my very best to leave doubt at home. I turn around when it's the best choice.

Mike
"There's a feeling I get when I look to the West and my spirit is crying for leaving" Led Zeppelin
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Re: When to turn around

Post by Carl_Healy »

I feel like I turn around before I even start if those red "thunder bars" show up in NOAA's hourly forecast at all in the timeframe I expect to be on a particular peak.

Then the next day I see condition reports and trip reports for that peak for people that were able to summit without issue and I don't know what to make of it :oops:
If you can't run, you walk
If you can't walk, you crawl
If you can't crawl, you find someone to carry you
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Re: When to turn around

Post by ekalina »

Carl_Healy wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:08 pm I feel like I turn around before I even start if those red "thunder bars" show up in NOAA's hourly forecast at all in the timeframe I expect to be on a particular peak.

Then the next day I see condition reports and trip reports for that peak for people that were able to summit without issue and I don't know what to make of it :oops:
Those thunder bars (see below) can be nonexistent or indicate slight chance, chance, likely, and occasional. I believe those last four descriptors correspond to a 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% chance of thunder, respectively. If the forecast has good reliability, "a slight chance of thunder" means that, on average, thunder will occur 1 out of 5 times. 4 out of 5 times, on average, there will be no thunder at that location at the time in question.

So, I take note if the thunder bars indicate slight chance or chance, but it is pretty common for that to be the case in the mountains by 10 am or so. That tells me it is possible an early thunderstorm might occur, but it is not the most likely outcome. Keeping an eye on the skies during the hike will provide additional information about whether this is going to be that 1 out of 5 times.

Now, if it's a slight chance/chance of thunder at 7 am, ramping up to likely/occasional by 10 am, I'd say that's a good day to reconsider one's high peak ambitions. The chance of getting turned around by weather is too great to justify the lost sleep, long drive, etc in that situation for me.
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mgl45
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Re: When to turn around

Post by mgl45 »

ekalina wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:42 pm

Those thunder bars (see below) can be nonexistent or indicate slight chance, chance, likely, and occasional. I believe those last four descriptors correspond to a 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% chance of thunder, respectively. If the forecast has good reliability, "a slight chance of thunder" means that, on average, thunder will occur 1 out of 5 times. 4 out of 5 times, on average, there will be no thunder at that location at the time in question.

So, I take note if the thunder bars indicate slight chance or chance, but it is pretty common for that to be the case in the mountains by 10 am or so. That tells me it is possible an early thunderstorm might occur, but it is not the most likely outcome. Keeping an eye on the skies during the hike will provide additional information about whether this is going to be that 1 out of 5 times.

Now, if it's a slight chance/chance of thunder at 7 am, ramping up to likely/occasional by 10 am, I'd say that's a good day to reconsider one's high peak ambitions. The chance of getting turned around by weather is too great to justify the lost sleep, long drive, etc in that situation for me.

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Thanks for the perspective.

Do you know the difference between the thunder graph and "lightning activity level" graph on NOAA? As far as I know lightning and thunder come as a pair so I'm puzzled why there are two graphs and wondering what I'm not understanding.

I tried to post a screenshot of the "lightning activity level" graph but can't get it to work with the message board so I uploaded it to Dropbox:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/wwfzeidyxatcq ... W.png?dl=0
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Re: When to turn around

Post by ekalina »

I had to look this up, as I'm not very familiar with the lightning activity level (LAL). See this table (also posted below):
https://graphical.weather.gov/definitio ... neLAL.html

It seems to me that the "thunder bars" tell us the probability that a thunderstorm will occur. In addition to conveying some sense of probability ("isolated", "widely scattered," etc), the LAL tells us how much cloud-to-ground lightning the thunderstorms will produce, and whether it will be "dry lightning" or accompanied by rain. It is meant to be used in fire weather forecasting to determine if lightning may start new fires.
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mgl45
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Re: When to turn around

Post by mgl45 »

ekalina wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 9:21 pm I had to look this up, as I'm not very familiar with the lightning activity level (LAL). See this table (also posted below):
https://graphical.weather.gov/definitio ... neLAL.html

It seems to me that the "thunder bars" tell us the probability that a thunderstorm will occur. In addition to conveying some sense of probability ("isolated", "widely scattered," etc), the LAL tells us how much cloud-to-ground lightning the thunderstorms will produce, and whether it will be "dry lightning" or accompanied by rain. It is meant to be used in fire weather forecasting to determine if lightning may start new fires.

Screen Shot 2021-06-30 at 9.19.42 PM.png

Thanks!
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Re: When to turn around

Post by daway8 »

ekalina wrote: Wed Jun 30, 2021 9:21 pm I had to look this up, as I'm not very familiar with the lightning activity level (LAL). See this table (also posted below):
https://graphical.weather.gov/definitio ... neLAL.html

It seems to me that the "thunder bars" tell us the probability that a thunderstorm will occur. In addition to conveying some sense of probability ("isolated", "widely scattered," etc), the LAL tells us how much cloud-to-ground lightning the thunderstorms will produce, and whether it will be "dry lightning" or accompanied by rain. It is meant to be used in fire weather forecasting to determine if lightning may start new fires.

Screen Shot 2021-06-30 at 9.19.42 PM.png
So "1 to 5 cloud to ground strikes in a five minute period" is considered "very infrequent"?!? If lightning was blasting the ground around me up to once every minute that doesn't sound "very infrequent" to me... :lol: :shock:

But I guess this is for fire weather forecasting, not hiking...
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