When to turn around

FAQ and threads for those just starting to hike the Colorado 14ers.
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DArcyS
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Re: When to turn around

Post by DArcyS »

Another question: "When to get up in the morning?"

I feel the most comfortable when I'm on the trail before 6. But keep in mind that I probably move a little faster than the beginner and 14ers require more time to summit than 13ers. Hundreds of peaks under my belt, and I haven't turned around a lot, and much of this is to getting an early start. "Furthermore" (i.e., Derek), who's finished the 13ers, was "expert" at the early start. See some of his trip reports.

Also, your question implies that one can read the weather (or clouds) to make a decision on when to turn around. The most dangerous storms are the ones that form immediately over you within 30-60 minutes. There's no looking to the horizon to see a storm approaching; rather, the storm forms over you and you're at the mercy of probabilities. That's happened to me once or twice over the years.

In the end, the one thing you can control is when you start your hike.
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greenonion
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Re: When to turn around

Post by greenonion »

mgl45 wrote: Sun Jun 27, 2021 9:16 pm Hello folks!

I am new to the forum and I've been soaking up tons of helpful info about the importance of weather in mountain hiking, especially higher peaks.

I've gained an understanding that looking at forecasts is important but a lot of this comes down to watching cloud formations during the climb, keeping an eye out for those that indicate instability and increased risk of thunderstorms.

From a link one of you posted, I found a great description of the stages of cloud development (below). From what I've read, the cloud development toward thunderstorms in the earlier stages sometimes is halted and storms never form.

My question for you all is, when watching cloud development when have you decided to turn around? I realize this is probably pretty subjective, just hoping to get a feel for it based on how you all have made your decisions in the past.

Thanks much for any advice you can offer.


Cloud Development descriptions from
https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/wkgr ... 031607.pdf

First cumulus clouds: Small fragments of cloud appearing in the morning, above the high points. Earlier and lower appearance of such clouds indicates more water and/or instability available for cumulus development.

Cumulus growth: Potential for further growth is indicated by turrets rising above general cloud-top level, by individual cloud columns that are taller than wide, and by cumulus clouds that are at least as high as they are wide.

Towering cumulus: Large clouds showing multiple turrets on top and sides surge upward rapidly, and in overall shape are taller than they are wide. Powerful towers under gray skies are especially telling forerunners.

Glaciation: Ice forms in the high, cold cloud tops, initiating shower formation, the electrification that leads to lightning, and a surge in cloud growth. Visual indicators include softening of cloud edges, less bright white, silkytexture, diffuse veils and streaks. You can assume ice formation when the tops reach the -10oC level and colder.

Shower formation: When ice forms, showers develop in the cloud, in about 30 or 40 minutes. Evidence can sometimes be seen in the diffuse streaks that remain when a recently-grown tower dissipates.

Graupel, rain, or hail can reach the ground in the next 10 or 20 minutes after initial shower formation within the cloud.

Lightning: Electrification arises from the precipitation process, and can reach discharge potential in minutes. First lightning usually occurs within the cloud, and strikes to the ground follow within minutes. Lightning can hit the ground even miles outside of the cloud base.
This is a fantastic post on observing weather and specifically thunder storm development. Super article from USFS as well. Thanks for sharing and informing on a very important topic.
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handonbroward
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Re: When to turn around

Post by handonbroward »

When to turn around:

When lightning suddenly strikes VERY close by with no previous warning / thunder, as just happened to me on Epaulie this morning. I was literally 100ft from the summit without any well developed clouds directly nearby. Was a very long run back to the tree line on the other side of the saddle east of Rosalie.

The reason though? Because I left the trailhead at 730 after sleeping in. Left my house at just after 6, instead of 5, as I had planned. The early (or very early) start is probably the 1 rule that I adhere to the most, and almost paid the price today for not following it.
"I hurt, therefore I am" - Barry Blanchard
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ekalina
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Re: When to turn around

Post by ekalina »

daway8 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:55 am So "1 to 5 cloud to ground strikes in a five minute period" is considered "very infrequent"?!? If lightning was blasting the ground around me up to once every minute that doesn't sound "very infrequent" to me... :lol: :shock:

But I guess this is for fire weather forecasting, not hiking...
Yeah, me too! I searched further, and found that the LAL is apparently computed over a 30-mile radius (so 2800 square miles)!
https://www.redzone.co/2015/12/31/wildf ... level-lal/

So in that context, 1-5 CG over the 2800 sq. mi. area isn't so intense. Not sure how 30-mi radius was selected.

But yeah, 1 CG/min in the vicinity of my hike would be cause for great alarm! :lol:
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cougar
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Re: When to turn around

Post by cougar »

FB_IMG_1625245694243.jpg
FB_IMG_1625245694243.jpg (158.13 KiB) Viewed 3201 times
http://www.listsofjohn.com/m/cougar

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letitbeirie
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Re: When to turn around

Post by letitbeirie »

cougar wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:10 am FB_IMG_1625245694243.jpg
When clouds are starting to give you the finger things are about to get biblical. Definitely time to turn around.
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greenonion
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Re: When to turn around

Post by greenonion »

letitbeirie wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:35 am
cougar wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:10 am FB_IMG_1625245694243.jpg
When clouds are starting to give you the finger things are about to get biblical. Definitely time to turn around.
Hilarious. Photo too.
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terrysrunning
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Re: When to turn around

Post by terrysrunning »

It's a complicated algorithm that takes into account a number of factors.
First, before I even go; I'm not driving 7 hours to the San Juans if there's a good chance of early storms. No interest in wasting 14 hours of driving. Front Range? I'll start hiking and see what happens.
What's the bailout look like? Lots of peaks, if there are good trails, I know I can literally run to treeline pretty fast. Or if the approach/escape is a gully or side of the mountain(Huron, Redcloud) I'll push it with clouds a little darker. If I'm going to be on a ridge for a while (Capitol, Kelso to Torreys) I'll bail a little quicker.
Then there are the irrational factors that nevertheless play a role in my decision-making. How far did I go to get this peak and how much of a PITA is it going to be to come back? I summited Windom in conditions I wouldn't even have considered in the Sawatch.
Fact is, you could summit in the middle of a lightning storm, and your odds of getting struck are pretty low. I've seen people do it. So there's not a hard line. And if you want NO risk, there aren't very many mountains you can climb. There's a lot of room in the middle 🤷‍♂️
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mgl45
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Re: When to turn around

Post by mgl45 »

DArcyS wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:30 am Also, your question implies that one can read the weather (or clouds) to make a decision on when to turn around. The most dangerous storms are the ones that form immediately over you within 30-60 minutes. There's no looking to the horizon to see a storm approaching; rather, the storm forms over you and you're at the mercy of probabilities. That's happened to me once or twice over the years.

In the end, the one thing you can control is when you start your hike.
Thanks for your advice!

Duly noted about the early start and for a storm forming immediately over you, is it not possible to get some indication of that happening from looking at the clouds directly above you?
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mgl45
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Re: When to turn around

Post by mgl45 »

letitbeirie wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:35 am
cougar wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:10 am FB_IMG_1625245694243.jpg
When clouds are starting to give you the finger things are about to get biblical. Definitely time to turn around.
Ha ha! Yeah, that effeminately seems like a bad sign!
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