Mountain Weather Forecasts: slight change of thunderstorms before noon
Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:39 pm
Hi folks, I'm starting to get some foundational experience with this with a few above-tree-line hikes, lots of reading and past discussions on this site, etc. But, I still have a lot to learn.
Once particular type of forecast that has come up the last few days is "slight chance of thunderstorms before noon".
My questions are all in the spirit of balancing the tension between the "mountain will be there another day" principle and the "if you wait for prefect conditions you won't get many chances" reality.
QUESTION #1
Based on everything learned so far, my instinct is that this kind of day warrants caution but not an absolute no-go. On a day like this would it be reasonable to aim to be off the summit by 10am, below treelike by noon, and assess the cloud development along the way, turning around if things are looking sketchy once I reach the treeline? What would you do?
I'm asking the context of an hike with moderate above tree line exposure, not something heavily exposed like Capitol, or big traverses, for example.
QUESTION #2
For "slight chance of thunderstorms before noon" forecast, I am also wondering about hikes that start above the treeline like Mount Sniktau or Mount Sherman, where there isn't really a "reassess at treeline opportunity".
Even though these hikes start above the treeline, would is still be reasonable to aim to be off the summit by 10am, back at the trailhead by noon, and assess the cloud development along the way, turning around if things are looking sketchy as the day progresses? What would you do?
Thanks much for any advice anyone may have!
For anyone who may come across this thread in the future, here are other weather related posts on the site I've found very helpful:
viewtopic.php?t=60231&view=unread#unread
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=60461&p=749367&hil ... nd#p749367
https://14ers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=52399
https://14ers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=44917
Once particular type of forecast that has come up the last few days is "slight chance of thunderstorms before noon".
My questions are all in the spirit of balancing the tension between the "mountain will be there another day" principle and the "if you wait for prefect conditions you won't get many chances" reality.
QUESTION #1
Based on everything learned so far, my instinct is that this kind of day warrants caution but not an absolute no-go. On a day like this would it be reasonable to aim to be off the summit by 10am, below treelike by noon, and assess the cloud development along the way, turning around if things are looking sketchy once I reach the treeline? What would you do?
I'm asking the context of an hike with moderate above tree line exposure, not something heavily exposed like Capitol, or big traverses, for example.
QUESTION #2
For "slight chance of thunderstorms before noon" forecast, I am also wondering about hikes that start above the treeline like Mount Sniktau or Mount Sherman, where there isn't really a "reassess at treeline opportunity".
Even though these hikes start above the treeline, would is still be reasonable to aim to be off the summit by 10am, back at the trailhead by noon, and assess the cloud development along the way, turning around if things are looking sketchy as the day progresses? What would you do?
Thanks much for any advice anyone may have!
For anyone who may come across this thread in the future, here are other weather related posts on the site I've found very helpful:
viewtopic.php?t=60231&view=unread#unread
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=60461&p=749367&hil ... nd#p749367
https://14ers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=52399
https://14ers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=44917