Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

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jjr_1988
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Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by jjr_1988 »

I posted in another 14ers forum but thought I'd ask here as well. Currently have a trip planned to the Chicago Basin from Sat. August 21 - Wednesday August 24. I'm considering changing my plans because of the weather forecast. To me, it looks pretty bad for peak-bagging but I tend to be overly cautious about the weather. It would really be a shame for this not to work. I was hoping to get some feedback from people on here on whether they think forecast indicates a worse-than-normal rain/thunderstorm likelihood or if it's just typical "be off the summit by noon" (ideally much earlier) kind of weather. Thanks in advance.
YouenjoymyhikeAT2015
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by YouenjoymyhikeAT2015 »

Do you read the weather discussion for a particular zone? I like to read them every morning over a cup of coffee.

The discussion provides a deeper understanding of the current weather pattern.

An elongated ridge of high pressure remains over the Great Basin
region today. A shortwave over Oregon will undercut the ridge
tonight and Friday as the next monsoonal surge moves north into
the Four Corners region. In addition, a disturbance will move
west across New Mexico through the short-term period and be
absorbed into the main monsoonal plume of moisture. This large-scale
pattern will set the stage for an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area on Friday. In the
meantime, expect the best focus for storms this afternoon and
early evening across southern sections of the area, with the
greatest threat over the higher terrain in southeastern Utah and
southwestern Colorado. Shower activity will diminish this
evening. Clouds will increase and thicken from the south overnight
ahead of the main surge of moisture. Isolated showers and storms
are possible late tonight and Friday morning. A combination of
weak dynamic lift, surface heating, and PWAT`s approaching 150
percent of normal will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain with localized
flooding, strong gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the
greatest threats. Flash flood prone locations, especially burn
scars will require a heightened focus. With increased cloud cover
on Friday, areas that clear, to allow for greater surface heating,
will have a greater risk of stronger storm development. Shower
activity will diminish Friday evening with isolated showers and
storms possible overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022

A weak shortwave will continue to undercut the ridge over the
western states on Saturday and Sunday. Model consensus continues
to show the bulk of the moisture and energy pushing east across
New Mexico through the weekend. However, moisture levels continue
to be elevated, so afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
can be expected both days with the best focus over the higher
terrain and the south.

By Monday, a ridge of high pressure will become reestablished
over the Intermountain West. A shortwave will move onshore across
the Pacific Northwest region on Monday and move slowly across the
northern Rockies through the work week. As this system moves
across the northern Rockies the ridge will be suppressed slightly
over the West. Confidence decreases a bit during the week, since
ensemble blends are showing some inconsistencies with the broad
scale features beyond Monday. Consensus shows the best focus for
late-day showers and storms will be across the south and higher
terrain along the Continental Divide on Monday. This trend will
continue through most of the workweek, with the best chance of
late-day showers and storms over the higher terrain and south,
with a lesser threat elsewhere. After cooler temperatures this
weekend, expect a warming trend through the work week.

Cheers
Last edited by YouenjoymyhikeAT2015 on Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
jjr_1988
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by jjr_1988 »

YouenjoymyhikeAT2015 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:28 pm Do you read the weather discussion for a particular zone? I like to read them every morning over a cup of coffee.

The discussion provides a deeper understanding of the current weather pattern.

An elongated ridge of high pressure remains over the Great Basin
region today. A shortwave over Oregon will undercut the ridge
tonight and Friday as the next monsoonal surge moves north into
the Four Corners region. In addition, a disturbance will move
west across New Mexico through the short-term period and be
absorbed into the main monsoonal plume of moisture. This large-scale
pattern will set the stage for an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area on Friday. In the
meantime, expect the best focus for storms this afternoon and
early evening across southern sections of the area, with the
greatest threat over the higher terrain in southeastern Utah and
southwestern Colorado. Shower activity will diminish this
evening. Clouds will increase and thicken from the south overnight
ahead of the main surge of moisture. Isolated showers and storms
are possible late tonight and Friday morning. A combination of
weak dynamic lift, surface heating, and PWAT`s approaching 150
percent of normal will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain with localized
flooding, strong gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the
greatest threats. Flash flood prone locations, especially burn
scars will require a heightened focus. With increased cloud cover
on Friday, areas that clear, to allow for greater surface heating,
will have a greater risk of stronger storm development. Shower
activity will diminish Friday evening with isolated showers and
storms possible overnight.

Cheers
Thanks for your reply. I can't say I'm familiar with that resource. I tried googling what you posted and nothing came up. Where is it from?
YouenjoymyhikeAT2015
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by YouenjoymyhikeAT2015 »

jjr_1988 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:37 pm
YouenjoymyhikeAT2015 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:28 pm Do you read the weather discussion for a particular zone? I like to read them every morning over a cup of coffee.

The discussion provides a deeper understanding of the current weather pattern.

An elongated ridge of high pressure remains over the Great Basin
region today. A shortwave over Oregon will undercut the ridge
tonight and Friday as the next monsoonal surge moves north into
the Four Corners region. In addition, a disturbance will move
west across New Mexico through the short-term period and be
absorbed into the main monsoonal plume of moisture. This large-scale
pattern will set the stage for an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area on Friday. In the
meantime, expect the best focus for storms this afternoon and
early evening across southern sections of the area, with the
greatest threat over the higher terrain in southeastern Utah and
southwestern Colorado. Shower activity will diminish this
evening. Clouds will increase and thicken from the south overnight
ahead of the main surge of moisture. Isolated showers and storms
are possible late tonight and Friday morning. A combination of
weak dynamic lift, surface heating, and PWAT`s approaching 150
percent of normal will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain with localized
flooding, strong gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the
greatest threats. Flash flood prone locations, especially burn
scars will require a heightened focus. With increased cloud cover
on Friday, areas that clear, to allow for greater surface heating,
will have a greater risk of stronger storm development. Shower
activity will diminish Friday evening with isolated showers and
storms possible overnight.

Cheers
Thanks for your reply. I can't say I'm familiar with that resource. I tried googling what you posted and nothing came up. Where is it from?
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

I went to weather.gov and typed in Chicago Basin. Once the page loads scroll towards the bottom and under "Additional Forecasts and Information" click "Forecast Discussion"

I also like to look at the "Hourly Weather Forecast" it is located to the right hand side of the page.
bigredmachine
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by bigredmachine »

Sat-Monday Chi Basin
Sat-Monday Chi Basin
D1050121-89B0-47D4-A73B-FB8A573B4EB7.png (248.78 KiB) Viewed 480 times
I like the weather graph. Go to weather on the app, pick your peak and scroll to the bottom. It goes by hourly and I have found it to be very reliable. The weather forecast for this weeken in Chicago basin is awful. It’s likely raining most of the weekend, and will be chilly.
Last edited by bigredmachine on Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
YouenjoymyhikeAT2015
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by YouenjoymyhikeAT2015 »

bigredmachine wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:48 pm I like the weather graph. Go to weather on the app, pick your peak and scroll to the bottom. It goes by hourly and I have found it to be very reliable. The weather forecast for this weeken in Chicago basin is awful. It’s likely raining most of the weekend, and will be chilly.
Which app?

NOAA?
bigredmachine
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by bigredmachine »

14ers.com then go to weather (click the 3 vertical bars)
jjr_1988
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by jjr_1988 »

YouenjoymyhikeAT2015 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:40 pm
jjr_1988 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:37 pm
YouenjoymyhikeAT2015 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:28 pm Do you read the weather discussion for a particular zone? I like to read them every morning over a cup of coffee.

The discussion provides a deeper understanding of the current weather pattern.

An elongated ridge of high pressure remains over the Great Basin
region today. A shortwave over Oregon will undercut the ridge
tonight and Friday as the next monsoonal surge moves north into
the Four Corners region. In addition, a disturbance will move
west across New Mexico through the short-term period and be
absorbed into the main monsoonal plume of moisture. This large-scale
pattern will set the stage for an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area on Friday. In the
meantime, expect the best focus for storms this afternoon and
early evening across southern sections of the area, with the
greatest threat over the higher terrain in southeastern Utah and
southwestern Colorado. Shower activity will diminish this
evening. Clouds will increase and thicken from the south overnight
ahead of the main surge of moisture. Isolated showers and storms
are possible late tonight and Friday morning. A combination of
weak dynamic lift, surface heating, and PWAT`s approaching 150
percent of normal will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain with localized
flooding, strong gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the
greatest threats. Flash flood prone locations, especially burn
scars will require a heightened focus. With increased cloud cover
on Friday, areas that clear, to allow for greater surface heating,
will have a greater risk of stronger storm development. Shower
activity will diminish Friday evening with isolated showers and
storms possible overnight.

Cheers
Thanks for your reply. I can't say I'm familiar with that resource. I tried googling what you posted and nothing came up. Where is it from?
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

I went to weather.gov and typed in Chicago Basin. Once the page loads scroll towards the bottom and under "Additional Forecasts and Information" click "Forecast Discussion"

I also like to look at the "Hourly Weather Forecast" it is located to the right hand side of the page.
I had never seen that. Really cool, thanks for sharing.
jjr_1988
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by jjr_1988 »

bigredmachine wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:48 pm D1050121-89B0-47D4-A73B-FB8A573B4EB7.pngI like the weather graph. Go to weather on the app, pick your peak and scroll to the bottom. It goes by hourly and I have found it to be very reliable. The weather forecast for this weeken in Chicago basin is awful. It’s likely raining most of the weekend, and will be chilly.
This is the exact forecast that has me worried. To me that looks a lot worse than normal monsoon season afternoon thunderstorm forecasts. But like I said I tend to be very conservative about the weather, just looking for a reality check. There have been many occasions where I’ve made the decision not to go on something only to see pictures of sunny skies on social media. Thanks for your input.
bigredmachine
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by bigredmachine »

I get it completely. This forecast is definitely not your normal afternoon monsoon. This is a cold rainy forecast. I wouldn’t expect a ton of lightning (could be wrong), but just very on and off unpredictable rain.
ladnerkm
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by ladnerkm »

The 4 corners area has been pummeled by moisture this summer. This is a typical monsoon pattern like the old days. This has been a difficult summer to safely bag peaks. Afternoon thunderstorms have nothing to do with a monsoon pattern. It will be wet, possible snow/hail up top, slick dangerous conditions on rocks, but probably low lightning chance. Usually dries out week before Labor Day
brousseau
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Re: Thoughts on Chicago Basin weather early next week?

Post by brousseau »

To me, using the NOAA link on the site, Monday and Tuesday seem to be ok, not great, if you really want to go. As previously mentioned, the potential for snow/ice in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday night is a little troubling and that might make me think about postponing.

In fact, I had this trip scheduled for early in July, but I postponed it because the weather forecast was worse than what you are facing. I didn't want to invest the time, energy, and money to drive down there from the Denver metro area only to not summit. I waited two weeks for a forecast that was a bit better. I still got rained on a few times while down there, but thankfully had enough decent weather windows that allowed me to summit.
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