Drought

Colorado peak questions, condition requests and other info.
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ker0uac
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Re: Drought

Post by ker0uac »

Jorts wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:09 pm Is there a specific point you're trying to make with all this verbose prose?
The suggestion that climate science is inherently faulty because it is less than 100 years old is inaccurate. Think about all the engineering and societal progress that has been made in the last 100 years as a result of advancements in science: antibiotics, lasers, commercial air travel, radiology, etc. etc.
You only remember the advancements made in those fields in the last 100yrs, but e.g. antibiotics have used in some form by Ancient civilizations. The FIRST ever climate model build less than 100yrs ago.
Jorts wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:09 pm Climate science, like other sciences, can be and is tested. Science is callous and unfeeling. There are not devil's advocates and proponents of the science itself, but only of the conclusions drawn from the science and evidence. Hypotheses and theories are constantly being refined based on new evidence.
My point is that it is not. Liberals love to tout statistics that 99.999% (or whatever) of scientists agree with climate science predictions. If that's true, then something is wrong bc so many predictions have came out wrong, which in itself isn't a problem. It becomes a problem when partisan ideology, activism and groupthink take over from scientific exploration. As far I know, the oceans aren't dead yet, we are not in an ice age yet, and we havent yet all disappeared in a cloud of blue steam.

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And there is more https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-yea ... edictions/
Jorts wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:09 pm Your invocation of Laplace and Lorenz alluding to chaos theory and how it leads to shortcomings in weather prediction are not directly germane to climate science. WTF.
Well, Lorenz wrote a book called "Nondeterministic theories of climatic change", but hey, if you think it ain't germane to climate science, then maybe you are right. Still, ignoring what you said, Lorenz discovery is germane to all problems involving non-linear dynamical systems depending on a set of initial conditions. In layman's terms, if you are trying to understand a pattern that you think started 50yrs ago, when in reality it started 45yrs ago, your solution will be most likely garbage. Systems that don't suffer from Lorenz deterministic chaos are called well-posed problems. Climate models aren't well-posed as they are called inverse problems - "An inverse problem in science is the process of calculating from a set of observations the causal factors that produced them. It is called an inverse problem because it starts with the effects and then calculates the causes. It is the inverse of a forward problem, which starts with the causes and then calculates the effects." Sounds a lot like climate change predictions. There is a lot of work being done on well-posed problems and I am far from capable of understanding most of it.

So, before we start heading to our shelters to prep for the end of times, maybe slow down to understand the difference between pop-culture-science and actual science.
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Dave B
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Re: Drought

Post by Dave B »

^ Holy s**t dude, you need a hobby.
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Skimo95
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Re: Drought

Post by Skimo95 »

Dave B wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:03 pm ^ Holy s**t dude, you need a hobby.
“A groundbreaking analysis of political hobbyism—treating politics like a spectator sport—and an urgent and timely call to arms for the many well-meaning, well-informed citizens who follow political news, but do not take political action.”
ker0uac
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Re: Drought

Post by ker0uac »

Jorts wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:23 pm Found this one fascinating… an extreme weather event that rather than just being “more probable” with climate change was found to have been impossible without climate change.

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/so ... f/-char/en
So, if you read scroll down and read the discussion and conclusions, you will find:

"Note that, model dependency and uncertainty in the boundary conditions of non-W are big issues in an EA research. There is an international multi-model intercomparison project for EA to address these issues (Stone 2013). Although the EA simulations of d4PDF has a higher resolution and a longer-term coverage of periods than the other state-of-the-art EA databases in the world, the weak point is in consideration of the uncertainties. Huge computational costs limit the goal. The results in this paper appears to be the best estimates within our current capabilities. The remaining issues will be explored in the future."

Boundaries conditions, I may add, is what I was talking about when I brought up Lorenz.

Also, this research is EA - "Attributing changes in the probability of a specific extreme event to possible causes is called event attribution (EA; Stott 2016). A set of large-ensemble model simulations under conditions with and without human-induced climate change is often utilized as an effective tool of EA"

I am not saying the paper is trash. I am saying it pays off to understand what you reading, if you want to read it.
Last edited by ker0uac on Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ker0uac
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Re: Drought

Post by ker0uac »

Skimo95 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:25 pm
Dave B wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:03 pm ^ Holy s**t dude, you need a hobby.
“A groundbreaking analysis of political hobbyism—treating politics like a spectator sport—and an urgent and timely call to arms for the many well-meaning, well-informed citizens who follow political news, but do not take political action.”
Exactly the response I'd expect from those who can't engage in scientific exploration but love to regurgitate sound bites
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Re: Drought

Post by jfm3 »

ker0uac wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:31 pm
Skimo95 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:25 pm
Dave B wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:03 pm ^ Holy s**t dude, you need a hobby.
“A groundbreaking analysis of political hobbyism—treating politics like a spectator sport—and an urgent and timely call to arms for the many well-meaning, well-informed citizens who follow political news, but do not take political action.”
Exactly the response I'd expect from those who can't engage in scientific exploration but love to regurgitate sound bites
Here's a sound bite: you seem like an enormous pain in the ass. My evidence for this comes in reading your lengthy.....contributions to threads about off-leash dogs, pandemic restrictions and this one.
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Scott P
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Re: Drought

Post by Scott P »

Parts of South Routt County are being evacuated due to the Muddy Slide Fire:

Ihttps://www.steamboatpilot.com/news/live-update ... -in-place/
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Bale
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Re: Drought

Post by Bale »

12ersRule wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:06 pm
Bale wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:43 am
12ersRule wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:01 pm
My plan is to be cryogenically frozen and then be awakened just as this is happening, so I can watch that! I'll wake up Ted Williams for that one too.
If you wake Ted, I’d like his autograph. Red Sox fan from Utah here.

Only his head got frozen, so will have to find him a new body. I assume his signature will be the same, but it'll probably take him some practice.
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SkaredShtles
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Re: Drought

Post by SkaredShtles »

Srsly - don't engage the dum dum. Everything gets much better if you put him on "Ignore"... 8)

And every time someone quotes him... god kills a kitten. :mrgreen:
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Re: Drought

Post by ekalina »

Some beneficial rain is expected over the next few days, including over western Colorado. Hopefully it will moderate fire behavior and allow firefighters to get ahead of the current blazes.
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ker0uac
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Re: Drought

Post by ker0uac »

SkaredShtles wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:34 pm Srsly - don't engage the dum dum. Everything gets much better if you put him on "Ignore"... 8)

And every time someone quotes him... god kills a kitten. :mrgreen:
Yea I've realized this isnt the place to discuss Science and most of what I said went way above people's heads here. Sorry. Let us return to the Democratic liberal version of QaNoN.

Omg the world is going to burn alive and we will all die together, all part of a plan concocted by the Koch brothers to take over California. If it wasn't for those damn Republicans, the planet would have a future! Im mad! We should lock them up! [-( Im gonna take political action now!
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Re: Drought

Post by highpilgrim »

ker0uac wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:34 pm Yea I've realized this isnt the place to discuss Science and most of what I said went way above people's heads here.
Dude: it must be so cool to be the shining star that you are. We’re all so incredibly jealous, impressed and f**k…just in awe.

Shine on you crazy diamond! (Sorry Syd)
Last edited by highpilgrim on Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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