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Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:54 pm
by jeffth5
DArcyS wrote:
Lots of comments on when a person is ready for class 3 or class 4. My litmus test is athleticism. Did you grow up playing sports? Are you uncoordinated and klutzy? To me these are hints as to whether or not you can climb a hard mountain safely. Give me a 60-year old who's only climbed 100 class 2 peaks and an athletic 25 year-old who hasn't ever climbed, and I'll put my money on the young one for being able to do the class 4 climbing on Capitol safely. But, like I said, it's a litmus test. Your pH may vary. Some people who never did a thing athletically as a kid may have some innate athleticism that emerges as an adult when they start to climb.

I'm also okay with Conor climbing Capitol on a whim given he's climbed Sunlight Spire and knows a little something about the outdoors. Perhaps he needs reminding here and there that he's actually a good climber.
Except that statistics on risk tend to show that young males have a tendency to make the worst decisions. It’s 80% mental on 14ers - it doesn’t seem to me that most 14er accidents are due to a lack of physical conditioning - they are due to some combination of poor decisionmaking and bad luck.

Sure, athleticism might be the difference in survival of an accident or ability to self rescue on a big peak (e.g. Alaska, Himalaya), but that’s not the type of accident or climbing generally contemplated here.

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:10 pm
by DArcyS
jeffth5 wrote:
DArcyS wrote:
Lots of comments on when a person is ready for class 3 or class 4. My litmus test is athleticism. Did you grow up playing sports? Are you uncoordinated and klutzy? To me these are hints as to whether or not you can climb a hard mountain safely. Give me a 60-year old who's only climbed 100 class 2 peaks and an athletic 25 year-old who hasn't ever climbed, and I'll put my money on the young one for being able to do the class 4 climbing on Capitol safely. But, like I said, it's a litmus test. Your pH may vary. Some people who never did a thing athletically as a kid may have some innate athleticism that emerges as an adult when they start to climb.

I'm also okay with Conor climbing Capitol on a whim given he's climbed Sunlight Spire and knows a little something about the outdoors. Perhaps he needs reminding here and there that he's actually a good climber.
Except that statistics on risk tend to show that young males have a tendency to make the worst decisions. It’s 80% mental on 14ers - it doesn’t seem to me that most 14er accidents are due to a lack of physical conditioning - they are due to some combination of poor decisionmaking and bad luck.

Sure, athleticism might be the difference in survival of an accident or ability to self rescue on a big peak (e.g. Alaska, Himalaya), but that’s not the type of accident or climbing generally contemplated here.
Plenty of people who die on these peaks tend to be around 50 and over. Just a trend I've noticed over the last 25 years or so. But for people in their 20's, yeah, I agree with what you're saying. As for a lack of accidents for people in their 30's and 40's, I surmise it might be people taking less risks because of spouses and kids at home or a lack of time to get to the mountains in the first place. It's the old and young who tend to die on these peaks, but for different reasons.

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:34 pm
by polar
jeffth5 wrote: Except that statistics on risk tend to show that young males have a tendency to make the worst decisions.
Just wanted to point out that's a false stereotype. The analysis I did last year using ANAM data from 1954 to 2015 shows an exact 50/50 split in the number of accidents in the below 30 and above 30 age groups.

Image

https://www.14ers.com/forum/viewtopic.p ... 12#p643446

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:11 pm
by mtnkub
^ Polar, i know that you know that the above "statistics" on its own doesn't say anything one way or the other about whether or not the stereotype is false. And i know that you know why that is. #fakenews

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:46 am
by DArcyS
polar wrote:Just wanted to point out that's a false stereotype.
And I suppose by extension the "trends" I noticed might also support false stereotypes (e.g., climbers over 50 are going downhill fast). The value of such statements doesn't come down to whether or not they are actually true, but rather in informing people that may be at risk. If I were a parent of a 20-something, you could be darn sure that I'd be urging them to think and rethink their decision making. Regarding the over 50 crowd, the value there is to guard against declining strength and motor skills by keeping in shape. In both cases, the stats -- whether or not they happen to be true -- can lead to proactive steps that increase one's safety in the mountains.

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:37 am
by CHWitte
jeffth5 wrote: It’s 80% mental on 14ers - it doesn’t seem to me that most 14er accidents are due to a lack of physical conditioning - they are due to some combination of poor decision making and bad luck.
This is worth repeating again for anyone reading this and learning about 14er climbing. In fact, I'd even go further and throw out the "bad luck" part and leave it at most 14er accidents are due to poor decision making. Here are the big FOUR PROBLEMS:

1) Leaving standard route

2) Leaving partner

3) No helmet and rain gear

4) Climbing late in the day and getting bad weather

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:48 am
by Conor
CHWitte wrote:
jeffth5 wrote: It’s 80% mental on 14ers - it doesn’t seem to me that most 14er accidents are due to a lack of physical conditioning - they are due to some combination of poor decision making and bad luck.
This is worth repeating again for anyone reading this and learning about 14er climbing. In fact, I'd even go further and throw out the "bad luck" part and leave it at most 14er accidents are due to poor decision making. Here are the big FOUR PROBLEMS:

1) Leaving standard route

2) Leaving partner

3) No helmet and rain gear

4) Climbing late in the day and getting bad weather
Just to clarify, these are YOUR 4 big problems and don't originate from any analysis of accident reports? For instance, there is no evidence taking a route other than the standard route causes one to be more prone to an "accident." If you're saying, plan your routes and stick to them, that goes to the heart of this thread and I can agree with.

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:53 am
by highpilgrim
Conor wrote:Just to clarify, these are YOUR 4 big problems and don't originate from any analysis of accident reports?
When you're a writer, you can make it up as you go. Makes the story more interesting and books sales skyrocket.

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:07 am
by CHWitte
Conor wrote:Just to clarify, these are YOUR 4 big problems and don't originate from any analysis of accident reports? For instance, there is no evidence taking a route other than the standard route causes one to be more prone to an "accident."
This is simply not true. Almost every accident that has occurred recently has involved folks getting of the standard route and/or leaving their partner. Correlation to an accident/death, absolutely. Out of the 1000s of people that stay on the standard route, we rarely hear about an accident or death unless it's weather related and that's why it's point #4.

Look at the 5 deaths on Capitol last year. All involved going off the standard route. Look at the rescue on Capitol this week, Tuesday, July 10, 2018. Going off the standard route and not having rain gear.

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:13 am
by highpilgrim
CHWitte wrote:This is simply not true.
\

Why doesn't your top four contain not being prepared?

The lack of preparation and the understanding that it brings leads to the bad choices made after.

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:26 am
by CHWitte
highpilgrim wrote:
CHWitte wrote:This is simply not true.
\

Why doesn't your top four contain not being prepared?

The lack of preparation and the understanding that it brings leads to the bad choices made after.
For many, leaving the standard route is all about not being prepared and knowing where the trail/route goes. Additionally, not bringing a helmet and rain gear is clearly "not being prepared."

Re: Deja Vu on Capitol Peak

Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:41 am
by rob runkle
Wish I lived in CO wrote:Can a sign be put up there already? There are a few such warning signs already around the 14ers. This seems like an obvious spot.
A sign where? This is the first instance that I've heard of someone trying to go down at this location.