Risk Factors

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timisimaginary
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Re: Risk Factors

Post by timisimaginary »

Jorts wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:35 am
timisimaginary wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 3:56 pm how they judge that risk
That's one of the most difficult things as a backcountry user to gauge whether skiing or solo scrambling. Humans generally have a tendency to underestimate risk because of the positive feedback loop bias (e.g. I've skied this dozens of times and it never slid, I must be making the right decisions). It helps to look at things through the "what if" lens to counteract that unconscious bias. I'm confident this will not slide but if it did, how big would it go? Would it funnel into a terrain trap or fan out on the apron? If there was rockfall, how exposed am I?
one of the neat things about that program is that it shows this through the experiences of some of these really extreme athletes, who have much more skill and experience but also more risk tolerance than the vast majority of people. one of the episodes i saw featured Travis Rice, a pro snowboarder who does descents on steep Alaskan faces, and how he got himself into an avalanche. he seems to expect that what he's doing is going to occasionally trigger an avalanche, but relies on his speed and skills to get out of it (he basically says at one point "an avalanch is only a problem if you're going slower than it"). he also describes factors that play into his risk assessment, like possible terrain traps, escape routes, testing snow quality etc.
and yet, on this particular day he ignored a lot of that. he skipped a snow test that would have sent snow cascading down the face beforehand, because the face was so pristine looking, he didn't want to mess it up for the video they were recording (demonstrating it's not just ignorant influencers who take excess risk "doing it for the gram"). they're schedule had been delayed by storms so when they finally got a good weather day, they rushed to take advantage of it and underestimated the amount and quality of new snow on the mountain. and during the descent, when the face cracks on him, he didn't have a safe escape route on his left that he hoped for, and ended getting caught in the avalanche. he was very lucky to be able to get out of it with minimal injury.
Jorts wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:35 am P.S. Thanks for finding that George Carlin clip!
it's one of my favorite bits of his. like so much of Carlin's material, it's super funny on the surface, but also says something deeper about human nature.
"The decay and disintegration of this culture is astonishingly amusing if you're emotionally detached from it." - George Carlin
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Re: Risk Factors

Post by timisimaginary »

Jim Davies wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 8:11 am
Jorts wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:35 amHumans generally have a tendency to underestimate risk because of the positive feedback loop bias (e.g. I've skied this dozens of times and it never slid, I must be making the right decisions).
They also tend to overestimate risks because of anecdotes - for example, several people reported seeing mountain lions on Facebook this week, so suddenly many people are freaking out about being attacked by lions. One result is the misapplication of resources to deal with miniscule risks - there are probably more guys carrying guns and pepper spray than wearing helmets or carrying personal rescue beacons.
humans are notoriously bad at risk assessment for a number of reasons. take flying vs. driving for example. you're far more likely to die in a car accident than a plane crash. but a plane crash gets reported on every time, gets lots of dramatic coverage, whereas many fatal car accidents are barely reported on at all. part of it is because a plane crash might involve hundreds of deaths all at once, whereas car accidents are more like a slow trickle over the course of the year, thus easier to ignore. plus the confirmation bias aspect, since most people drive thousands of miles a year without dying, whereas the average person might only take one to two flights per year tops. all those event-free drives add up to a feeling of safety you might not get for something you only do once or twice a year.

i also wonder if the fear of animal attacks has a genetic component. we are apex predators, as long as we have the right tools, or a large enough group. but on our own, weaponless, we're extremely vulnerable to other predators, and we evolved that way for thousands of years. so there may be a visceral fear of predators that worked its way into our genetic code, that doesn't exist for other types of danger.
"The decay and disintegration of this culture is astonishingly amusing if you're emotionally detached from it." - George Carlin
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Jim Davies
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Re: Risk Factors

Post by Jim Davies »

timisimaginary wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:59 am plus the confirmation bias aspect, since most people drive thousands of miles a year without dying, whereas the average person might only take one to two flights per year tops.
There's also the "illusion of control". If an airliner crashes, you're helpless, but drivers don't expect to get into fatal accidents because most drivers think they're better than average. Likewise, elite athletes feel that they'll be able to escape avalanches, won't sprain an ankle in the wilderness, etc.
i also wonder if the fear of animal attacks has a genetic component.
Interesting idea. We probably don't have a genetic aversion to rockfall.
Climbing at altitude is like hitting your head against a brick wall — it's great when you stop. -- Chris Darwin
I'm pretty tired. I think I'll go home now. -- Forrest Gump
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madbuck
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Re: Risk Factors

Post by madbuck »

Jim Davies wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 8:11 am
Jorts wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:35 amHumans generally have a tendency to underestimate risk because of the positive feedback loop bias
They also tend to overestimate risks because of anecdotes
So, on average, we're "just right" as a species! :-D

But yeah, great discussion of biases, heuristic traps, logical fallacies, etc.
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Re: Risk Factors

Post by bsiegs »

Tornadoman wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:08 am One of the things I take most pride in is doing the peaks as safely as possible- this means picking the right weather, conditions, and route choice (alternatives are always an option). I didn't do any of the Great Traverses as I felt they added risk I didn't want to take- just go ahead an asterik next to my 14er finisher list.
I think it's worth acknowledging, however, that for some, especially as one progresses in the mountains, the specific route can become the primary goal (rather than the peak itself), and this is totally ok, imo. I guess what I'm trying to point out is that finishing the 14ers is just as arbitrary a goal as finishing the great traverses. For example, one could choose to be even safer by setting a goal of only all of the class 1-3 14ers. But, we all have our goals that we set for ourselves, given our own personal risk tolerances balanced with what we are striving to accomplish.
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Re: Risk Factors

Post by Old Hickory »

HikerGuy wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 10:51 am
EDIT: In regards to helmet wearing, a big fall will likely be fatal regardless of wearing one or not. As I hike alone, rockfall is usually not a major concern. However, I think I have discounted how a minor slip or stumble on steeper terrain or talus could easily lead to a serious head injury. My wife has warned me that if I fall, it better be fatal because she's not changing my diapers. It's easy to become complacent over time and that is not fair to ourselves or those who love us.
This. I've looked back and realized that it would've been wise to wear one on any Class 2 route, especially if somewhat remote. ... I met "Amy" -- who's on this forum but I don't know her screen name -- on a hike up Humboldt in 2021. She flew up and down the hill past me (after giving me brief counsel and words of encouragement), and I made it to the peak. ... It wasn't until later that I comprehended she was wearing a helmet. I have taken a lesson from that. "Class 3 = helmet," sure. But if Amy was wearing a helmet on a Class 2 route . . . she's probably wiser than me.
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Re: Risk Factors

Post by ekalina »

Jorts wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:35 am Humans generally have a tendency to underestimate risk because of the positive feedback loop bias (e.g. I've skied this dozens of times and it never slid, I must be making the right decisions). It helps to look at things through the "what if" lens to counteract that unconscious bias.
I know that is true of humans in general. Sometimes I think I'm too good at the what if's though. What if I slip on that exposed move? What if I'm not the first party on the route and they kick down some rocks, or worse, I kick down rocks on somebody? What if I get into a car accident on the way back from the hike? It's enough to make you (well, me in this case) question whether it's even worth it to be out there.

So while I think it's good to think about what could go wrong, oftentimes after doing so I'm still just left with a pile of what if's that have varying degrees of likelihood of occurring. If I don't want to spend the weekend on the couch, I need to take reasonable precautions and then quit dwelling on them. Especially if they are out of my control. Nevertheless, if something catastrophic happened that was out of my control, I'd still end up wishing I had sat that trip out.

Such is the conundrum of this hobby. It is never going to be fully safe. How unsafe it truly is, from a statistical perspective, is a bit hard for me to gauge.
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Re: Risk Factors

Post by timisimaginary »

bsiegs wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:19 pm
Tornadoman wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:08 am One of the things I take most pride in is doing the peaks as safely as possible- this means picking the right weather, conditions, and route choice (alternatives are always an option). I didn't do any of the Great Traverses as I felt they added risk I didn't want to take- just go ahead an asterik next to my 14er finisher list.
I think it's worth acknowledging, however, that for some, especially as one progresses in the mountains, the specific route can become the primary goal (rather than the peak itself), and this is totally ok, imo. I guess what I'm trying to point out is that finishing the 14ers is just as arbitrary a goal as finishing the great traverses. For example, one could choose to be even safer by setting a goal of only all of the class 1-3 14ers. But, we all have our goals that we set for ourselves, given our own personal risk tolerances balanced with what we are striving to accomplish.
i have a personal arbitrary goal of finishing all the 14ers that don't scare the crap out of me.
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Re: Risk Factors

Post by Tornadoman »

timisimaginary wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 4:07 pm
bsiegs wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:19 pm
Tornadoman wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:08 am One of the things I take most pride in is doing the peaks as safely as possible- this means picking the right weather, conditions, and route choice (alternatives are always an option). I didn't do any of the Great Traverses as I felt they added risk I didn't want to take- just go ahead an asterik next to my 14er finisher list.
I think it's worth acknowledging, however, that for some, especially as one progresses in the mountains, the specific route can become the primary goal (rather than the peak itself), and this is totally ok, imo. I guess what I'm trying to point out is that finishing the 14ers is just as arbitrary a goal as finishing the great traverses. For example, one could choose to be even safer by setting a goal of only all of the class 1-3 14ers. But, we all have our goals that we set for ourselves, given our own personal risk tolerances balanced with what we are striving to accomplish.


i have a personal arbitrary goal of finishing all the 14ers that don't scare the crap out of me.

That's a darn fine goal, and I for one respect it.
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Re: Risk Factors

Post by scvaughn »

Eli Boardman wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:34 pm The fact that someone would get laughed at for wearing a helmet scrambling is unfathomable to me.

Only posers think that safety gear makes you uncool.
Agreed, 100%. On C3+, the helmet is mandatory, IMO.
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