Global warming shrinks mountains

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rob runkle
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by rob runkle »

tundraline wrote:Rob Runkle: I've not read anything of substance you have posted on this topic. What I have read, instead, is a lot of petty nasty sniping and potshots, most with a poorly disguised gloss of superiority. Why don't you spend your time more productively by finding some credible information that supports your overtly politicized position, and posting it here for us to read? Me thinks the problem is that you are having a hard time finding something.


Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. Haha! Nice. tundraline's definition of "no substance" means, anything that he doesn't agree with. Nice. Haha! Then, you are right, I don't agree with you.

Need I remind you (oh yeah I guess I do...) I provided the following information:
Multiple sources of many scientists that don't believe the hype:
http://www.petitionproject.org/index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm? ... cb00b51a12" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
IPCC Uncovered...
http://mclean.ch/climate/IPCC.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
tundraline wrote:BTW, I'm neither a Republican nor a Democrat, so your neat little vision of the world being split into red and blue camps doesn't work.
Hmmm! Not sure where you got this one. :?:
You must have gotten it from my "overtly politicized position" - YOUR WORDS. Find ANYWHERE that I've posted my political position please!
You kind of MADE THAT ONE UP MAN!
tundraline wrote:FWIW, I am also quite confident that my understanding of scientific data and its analysis is substantially deeper than yours. On that basis, I therefore place you in the category of those who "just don't understand" data analysis and modeling. But you might be able to prove me wrong. Please have at it.
Then you should understand that data analysis skills are independant of knowledge on any particular topic. The author that Covrider was quoting was obviously a data analysis wiz, and gave appropriate disclaimers to their expertise in climate change. Assuming that the data is from a good source, then the analysis is valid. You immediately jumped to the disclaimer and proclaimed, "Look, he is no expert!!!"
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by tundraline »

rob runkle wrote:
tundraline wrote:Rob Runkle: I've not read anything of substance you have posted on this topic. What I have read, instead, is a lot of petty nasty sniping and potshots, most with a poorly disguised gloss of superiority. Why don't you spend your time more productively by finding some credible information that supports your overtly politicized position, and posting it here for us to read? Me thinks the problem is that you are having a hard time finding something.


Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. Haha! Nice. tundraline's definition of "no substance" means, anything that he doesn't agree with. Nice. Haha! Then, you are right, I don't agree with you.

Need I remind you (oh yeah I guess I do...) I provided the following information:
Multiple sources of many scientists that don't believe the hype:
http://www.petitionproject.org/index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;? ... cb00b51a12
IPCC Uncovered...
http://mclean.ch/climate/IPCC.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
tundraline wrote:BTW, I'm neither a Republican nor a Democrat, so your neat little vision of the world being split into red and blue camps doesn't work.
Hmmm! Not sure where you got this one. :?:
You must have gotten it from my "overtly politicized position" - YOUR WORDS. Find ANYWHERE that I've posted my political position please!
You kind of MADE THAT ONE UP MAN!
tundraline wrote:FWIW, I am also quite confident that my understanding of scientific data and its analysis is substantially deeper than yours. On that basis, I therefore place you in the category of those who "just don't understand" data analysis and modeling. But you might be able to prove me wrong. Please have at it.
Then you should understand that data analysis skills are independant of knowledge on any particular topic. The author that Covrider was quoting was obviously a data analysis wiz, and gave appropriate disclaimers to their expertise in climate change. Assuming that the data is from a good source, then the analysis is valid. You immediately jumped to the disclaimer and proclaimed, "Look, he is no expert!!!"
Can't you do better than that? Pretty weak . . . and certainly not very convincing. I think Rush and GW have gotten to you. You need to be deprogrammed.
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rob runkle
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by rob runkle »

tundraline wrote:Can't you do better than that? Pretty weak . . . and certainly not very convincing. I think Rush and GW have gotten to you. You need to be deprogrammed.
There is your example of "overtly politicized position". Oh wait, it was YOU! =D>
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by covfrrider »

rob runkle wrote:
Covrider... You had to know that you would get this kind of response (like from tundraline). Some people just don't understand that data anaylsis and modeling does not necessarily require one be an expert on the subject. You should have seen this one coming from a mile away Cov... :D
I don't take it personally, as there will always be those that "drink the kool-aid"... I thought the link I posted was even more enlightening, BECAUSE the author IS NOT a trained meteorologist. He was simply applying data analysis to a very small dataset, with NO BIAS in either direction.

As I stated, I think there is far too little data to make definitive assumptions about our fate... Assume the earth is 4 billion years old. The last 200 years (which is a very liberal estimation) of plausible data is 0.00000005 of that timespan... to put that in perspective, if lifespan of the earth were a 100 foot tall (10 stories +/-) building, the last 200 years would be 0.00006 inches. The average diameter of a black hair (1/450 of an inch) is 0.0022222222222222 inches.

Food for thought... Flame away!
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by tundraline »

covfrrider wrote:
rob runkle wrote:
Covrider... You had to know that you would get this kind of response (like from tundraline). Some people just don't understand that data anaylsis and modeling does not necessarily require one be an expert on the subject. You should have seen this one coming from a mile away Cov... :D
I don't take it personally, as there will always be those that "drink the kool-aid"... I thought the link I posted was even more enlightening, BECAUSE the author IS NOT a trained meteorologist. He was simply applying data analysis to a very small dataset, with NO BIAS in either direction.

As I stated, I think there is far too little data to make definitive assumptions about our fate... Assume the earth is 4 billion years old. The last 200 years (which is a very liberal estimation) of plausible data is 0.00000005 of that timespan... to put that in perspective, if lifespan of the earth were a 100 foot tall (10 stories +/-) building, the last 200 years would be 0.00006 inches. The average diameter of a black hair (1/450 of an inch) is 0.0022222222222222 inches.

Food for thought... Flame away!
Of course, we'll probably not get to the bottom of this issue during our lifetimes with anything close to 100% certainty. The nature of the data does not lend itself to easy pat answers. And there is plenty to disagree about, if that's what you want to do. Nevertheless, 90% confidence levels in data are high enough for any competent scientist or engineers to pay real close attention (which is basically where the scientific community is on the issue of global warming being a reality and being man-induced). The writing is certainly on the wall for those who are willing to take heed. Sea levels and temperatures ARE rising. Ice shelves and glaciers ARE disappearing. Boreal forests ARE shrinking. Southern species ARE invading northern climes and higher elevations. Plant and animal species ARE disappearing at an alarming rate. Pine beetles ARE killing western forests. Dead zones and concentrations of human garbage ARE appearing in the world's oceans. India and China ARE becoming full-fledged energy consumers and polluters. And the world's population just keeps on increasing. The fact is, we human beings have wrought enormous and unprecedented changes on the planet since the dawn of the industrial revolution. These changes will only accelerate in magnitude, unless of course we choose to do something about it. Population control is certainly within human capability, as are reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing energy efficiency. Ignoring reality certainly will not play a part in any solution, even if you drink lots of red koolaid.
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by PressOn »

tundraline wrote:And the world's population just keeps on increasing.
I blame advances in medical science as well as advances in safety. People just aren't dying off at a fast enough rate anymore.
tundraline wrote:Population control is certainly within human capability...
Anyone else old enough to remember Logan's Run?

Sorry I don't have anything of any substance to add. :oops:
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has called me heavenward in Christ Jesus." --Phil 3:15-16
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by smoove »

Anyone else old enough to remember Logan's Run?
Hmm, well I was two when it came out but I have indeed seen it a few times! Yay, now I've contributed to this thread.

And...oh s**t, they would've disposed of me four years ago!!!!
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by covfrrider »

tundraline wrote:
covfrrider wrote:
rob runkle wrote:
Covrider... You had to know that you would get this kind of response (like from tundraline). Some people just don't understand that data anaylsis and modeling does not necessarily require one be an expert on the subject. You should have seen this one coming from a mile away Cov... :D
I don't take it personally, as there will always be those that "drink the kool-aid"... I thought the link I posted was even more enlightening, BECAUSE the author IS NOT a trained meteorologist. He was simply applying data analysis to a very small dataset, with NO BIAS in either direction.

As I stated, I think there is far too little data to make definitive assumptions about our fate... Assume the earth is 4 billion years old. The last 200 years (which is a very liberal estimation) of plausible data is 0.00000005 of that timespan... to put that in perspective, if lifespan of the earth were a 100 foot tall (10 stories +/-) building, the last 200 years would be 0.00006 inches. The average diameter of a black hair (1/450 of an inch) is 0.0022222222222222 inches.

Food for thought... Flame away!
Of course, we'll probably not get to the bottom of this issue during our lifetimes with anything close to 100% certainty. The nature of the data does not lend itself to easy pat answers. And there is plenty to disagree about, if that's what you want to do. Nevertheless, 90% confidence levels in data are high enough for any competent scientist or engineers to pay real close attention (which is basically where the scientific community is on the issue of global warming being a reality and being man-induced). The writing is certainly on the wall for those who are willing to take heed. Sea levels and temperatures ARE rising. Ice shelves and glaciers ARE disappearing. Boreal forests ARE shrinking. Southern species ARE invading northern climes and higher elevations. Plant and animal species ARE disappearing at an alarming rate. Pine beetles ARE killing western forests. Dead zones and concentrations of human garbage ARE appearing in the world's oceans. India and China ARE becoming full-fledged energy consumers and polluters. And the world's population just keeps on increasing. The fact is, we human beings have wrought enormous and unprecedented changes on the planet since the dawn of the industrial revolution. These changes will only accelerate in magnitude, unless of course we choose to do something about it. Population control is certainly within human capability, as are reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing energy efficiency. Ignoring reality certainly will not play a part in any solution, even if you drink lots of red koolaid.
The great thing about scientific communities? There are so many to choose from...

BTW: The oceans are not across the board warming, and if you too time to look at the link I provided, the model is the Pacific Decadel Oscillation... the oceans warm AND cool on a cycle... But if you want to believe in Global Warming being man induced, I'm sure you can find plenty of data to support that... and if you don't believe it, there's just as much data.

Bottom Line: Control the things you have control over...
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

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covfrrider wrote:Falls in line with what I've always believed about the weather... it's cyclical, and our samples are far too small to draw any incontrovertible conclusions.
This is a great example of "confirmation bias". The MD in question just plotted some data from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (the PDO in his caption), which is a periodic fluctuation of temperatures on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean. If you plotted global average temperatures over the same period, they'd be trending upward, not going up and down. The good doctor just found a data set that fit his preconceived notions about the climate and used it, rather than looking for the best data available on global temperature (which is what we're talking about here, not Pacific Ocean temperature).

btw, Tundraline, have you calculated your carbon footprint lately (not counting "carbon offsets", which I consider cheating). If you're not severely cutting your personal consumption to help reduce global warming, you're a hypocrite.
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by tundraline »

Jim Davies wrote:
covfrrider wrote:Falls in line with what I've always believed about the weather... it's cyclical, and our samples are far too small to draw any incontrovertible conclusions.
This is a great example of "confirmation bias". The MD in question just plotted some data from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (the PDO in his caption), which is a periodic fluctuation of temperatures on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean. If you plotted global average temperatures over the same period, they'd be trending upward, not going up and down. The good doctor just found a data set that fit his preconceived notions about the climate and used it, rather than looking for the best data available on global temperature (which is what we're talking about here, not Pacific Ocean temperature).

btw, Tundraline, have you calculated your carbon footprint lately (not counting "carbon offsets", which I consider cheating). If you're not severely cutting your personal consumption to help reduce global warming, you're a hypocrite.
I live in a big air-conditioned house, have three Hummers, a hovercraft, and fly all over the world on a regular basis. After deducting carbon credits for having the proper mindset, my calculated carbon footprint is very small. I know that as an individual I have no responsibility for what is happening to my planet.
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by Mark A Steiner »

Jim Davies made a fine point about climate modeling (selecting data that fits a model or preconception rather than allowing the model to assume its own character with all available data). Pick and choose your data and you can construct a Power Point presentation making you look brilliant to your peers at conferences, even if you conclusions are false. Forget the expense to good science. You're da Man. Unfortunately this practice in science is rampant elsewhere including in geology.

Brief case in point: K-Ar (or Ar-Ar) radiometric dating says a volcanic rock is 26 MY old. U-Pb says this same rock is 40 MY old. How old is the rock?

Didn't someone earlier in this thread say the planet is 4 BY old (I was taught it is 4.6BY old - big deal)? Is this what we use to date the age of earth?
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Re: Global warming shrinks mountains

Post by covfrrider »

Mark A Steiner wrote: Didn't someone earlier in this thread say the planet is 4 BY old (I was taught it is 4.6BY old - big deal)? Is this what we use to date the age of earth?
I said that to illustrate a point... Assume the earth is 4 B y/o... Use any number you like, I was simply trying to point out that the "data" is for such a short period of time in the grand scheme of things, that making a definitive statement is not really possible.

As far a picking a data set and making a model, Jim made my point exactly... both side of this argument are probably guilty of just that.
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