Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Info on gear, conditioning, and preparation for hiking/climbing.
Forum rules
  • This is a mountaineering forum, so please keep your posts on-topic. Posts do not all have to be related to the 14ers but should at least be mountaineering-related.
  • Personal attacks and confrontational behavior will result in removal from the forum at the discretion of the administrators.
  • Do not use this forum to advertise, sell photos or other products or promote a commercial website.
  • Posts will be removed at the discretion of the site administrator or moderator(s), including: Troll posts, posts pushing political views or religious beliefs, and posts with the purpose of instigating conflict within the forum.
For more details, please see the Terms of Use you agreed to when joining the forum.
User avatar
gb
Posts: 989
Joined: 12/12/2006
14ers: 56  54  6 
13ers: 67 54
Trip Reports (26)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by gb »

The Caltopo slope shading tool is an excellent resource for trip planning, but do keep in mind that observations on the ground are even more important (I think those of you who brought it up know that, but in case anyone was planning to use that tool as a shortcut...). This accident report does an excellent job of explaining the risks of using Caltopo: https://avalanche.state.co.us/caic/acc/ ... &accfm=inv
User avatar
Jorts
Posts: 1113
Joined: 4/12/2013
14ers: 58  4  2 
13ers: 102 11 5
Trip Reports (10)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by Jorts »

These two recent avalanches demonstrate the problem of heuristic shortcuts. Both parties were familiar with where they were skiing and had skied there uneventfully in the past avoiding steeper more avalanche prone slopes along the way. The thin snowpack is extremely sensitive but it is too thin to produce really large slides. These early season slides are occurring in relatively low angle (30 to 35 deg) terrain compared to a lot of the fatal accidents we see later in the season.

Unusual weather produces unusual avalanches. Identifying any given slope as avalanche prone would be impossible. Some normally barren slopes get loaded with the right wind conditions and produce slides. Cross loading, gullies, gulches all funnel and redirect wind in unusual ways such that a south slope of least concern could be fat and ready to slide even though the CAIC is not addressing any concerns on south slopes.

There are no shortcuts. Studying a topo helps but you have to be able to assess on the fly as well and be willing and able to deviate from a planned route based on new information gleaned in the field.
Traveling light is the only way to fly.
IG: @colorado_invasive
Strava: Brent Herring
User avatar
rijaca
Posts: 3387
Joined: 7/8/2006
14ers: 58  4 
13ers: 244 1 2
Trip Reports (1)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by rijaca »

JtheChemE wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:46 am One of the most important things to keep in mind is that the best factor of mitigating risk is avoidance. Most winter peak baggers simply avoid avalanche terrain completely, unless the snowpack is stable without question. Or they stick to the long list of safer winter peaks that can be done under elevated hazard (many of those are 14ers).
^ This!
"A couple more shots of whiskey,
the women 'round here start looking good"
User avatar
JtheChemE
Posts: 207
Joined: 1/18/2015
Trip Reports (4)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by JtheChemE »

Its apparent my comments may be misinterpreted so to be clear: Cal Topo is not the end all be all.

However, my post regarding Sneffels was geared towards newer hikers with limited experience. I still feel that for beginning / intermediate hikers, Cal Topo can be valuable as an upfront go/no go in conjunction with CAIC.

Example:
- Newer hiker with limited BC experience reads the CAIC report it says "Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended, stick to lower angle slopes"
- Newer hiker with limited BC experience can go to cal topo and quickly realize the route or approach is guarded unavoidably by avalanche terrain
- Newer hiker with limited BC experience (hopefully) does not go out into avalanche terrain.

If a "go" is in the cards, it is then vital to take into account some of the other things that conor/BG/jort mention, especially during marginal conditions. That said, understanding weather trends, the effect of wind scouring, etc are all well beyond the scope of people who cannot even recognize avalanche terrain on a topo and identify / avoid it in the field.

Again I agree the onsite evaluation is key (particularly under moderate conditions) as people progress beyond the basics. Micro terrain is not apparent in cal topo, and can be just as deadly as the obvious big open face. Nobody should be in avalanche terrain without the knowledge to assess the situation onsite. Counterintuitively, the same onsite assesments that Conor mentions can be heuristic traps to the very experienced and still produce accidents. That's why for hikers the best tactic is avoidance.
User avatar
Conor
Posts: 1112
Joined: 9/2/2014
14ers: 41  6  6 
13ers: 51 1 1
Trip Reports (7)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by Conor »

JtheChemE wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:46 am Its apparent my comments may be misinterpreted so to be clear: Cal Topo is not the end all be all.

However, my post regarding Sneffels was geared towards newer hikers with limited experience. I still feel that for beginning / intermediate hikers, Cal Topo is really valuable as an upfront go/no go in conjunction with CAIC.

Example:
- Newer hiker with limited BC experience reads the CAIC report it says "Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended, stick to lower angle slopes"
- Newer hiker with limited BC experience can go to cal topo and quickly realize the route or approach is guarded unavoidably by avalanche terrain
- Newer hiker with limited BC experience (hopefully) does not go out into avalanche terrain.

If a "go" is in the cards, it is then vital to take into account some of the other things that conor/BG/jort mention, especially during marginal conditions. That said, understanding weather trends, the effect of wind scouring, etc are all well beyond the scope of people who cannot even recognize avalanche terrain on a topo and identify / avoid it in the field.

Again I agree the onsite evaluation is key (particularly under moderate conditions) as people progress beyond the basics. Micro terrain is not apparent in cal topo, and can be just as deadly as the obvious big open face. Nobody should be in avalanche terrain without the knowledge to assess the situation onsite. Counterintuitively, the same onsite assesments that Conor mentions can be heuristic traps to the very experienced and still produce accidents. That's why for hikers the best tactic is avoidance.
This conversation always goes down the same road with people throwing out the word "heuristic" like they're writing their phd thesis. The problem with avalanche assessment is that very few people ever get feedback. Say I deem a situation to be "Safe" and don't get lanched. does that mean the next person will be "Safe"? Or flip it around, so I make a no-go decision, how do I know that is the correct one? Unfortunately, there are very few people who get the true feedback they need. Ski patrollers who asses, make an assessment and then actually toss a bomb on it to see if they are correct or not would be one example. Otherwise, we're all just gathering more clues that may or may not reduce our risk. I will continue to do so, as it can mean I am willing to accept a risk or not. But I am not under any thought that doing tests in the field without a proper feedback loop is anything more than slightly lowering, maybe even insignificantly so, one's risk.

So get that inclinometer and avoid, all though I think most people cross avalanche terrain at some point in most hikes. Depending on what one is calling avy terrain...25 deg, 30 deg etc. I always think of it as 25 deg, but that's me.
User avatar
Chicago Transplant
Posts: 4008
Joined: 9/7/2004
14ers: 58  12  24 
13ers: 697 39 34
Trip Reports (66)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by Chicago Transplant »

As noted above, people are terrible at estimating slope angle and I second the recommendation for an inclinometer. I doubt many people even think of 30 degrees as being steep enough to slide when actually in the field, even if they have been told numerous times 30 degrees is dangerous. They don't necessarily equate the slope they are on to the steepness. In reality, 30 degrees is less steep than most staircases, so people probably don't think its steep because they are used to that type of steepness and probably walk it every day and just don't think it feels steep when they are out.

I work in architecture, building code max for an exit stair is 7" rise to 11" run, which is 32.5 degrees. I took this photo of my inclinometer on the railing of the stair at my condo complex, 31 degrees. I don't want to oversimplify because snow evaluation is complex and changes by the minute due to wind, sun, temperature etc. You can cross a slope on your ascent that might be perfectly stable, then on the descent it can be a death trap. But if you don't have the tools/education/mentor to help you evaluate the snow, avoiding avalanche terrain in the first place is the best idea. In that regard, at its simplest, know that a stair case is probably 30 to 32.5 degrees, if you start getting into terrain that is as steep as a staircase, you are on an avalanche slope.
Railing.jpg
Railing.jpg (54.37 KiB) Viewed 3827 times
"We want the unpopular challenge. We want to test our intellect!" - Snapcase
"You are not what you own" - Fugazi
"Life's a mountain not a beach" - Fortune Cookie I got at lunch the other day
User avatar
greenonion
Posts: 1892
Joined: 10/3/2012
14ers: 50  1 
13ers: 2
Trip Reports (0)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by greenonion »

Chicago Transplant wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 9:57 am As noted above, people are terrible at estimating slope angle and I second the recommendation for an inclinometer. I doubt many people even think of 30 degrees as being steep enough to slide when actually in the field, even if they have been told numerous times 30 degrees is dangerous. They don't necessarily equate the slope they are on to the steepness. In reality, 30 degrees is less steep than most staircases, so people probably don't think its steep because they are used to that type of steepness and probably walk it every day and just don't think it feels steep when they are out.

I work in architecture, building code max for an exit stair is 7" rise to 11" run, which is 32.5 degrees. I took this photo of my inclinometer on the railing of the stair at my condo complex, 31 degrees. I don't want to oversimplify because snow evaluation is complex and changes by the minute due to wind, sun, temperature etc. You can cross a slope on your ascent that might be perfectly stable, then on the descent it can be a death trap. But if you don't have the tools/education/mentor to help you evaluate the snow, avoiding avalanche terrain in the first place is the best idea. In that regard, at its simplest, know that a stair case is probably 30 to 32.5 degrees, if you start getting into terrain that is as steep as a staircase, you are on an avalanche slope.

Railing.jpg
Excellent demonstration and discussion of slope angle dangers. Visualizing that low angle surprises me.
User avatar
Jorts
Posts: 1113
Joined: 4/12/2013
14ers: 58  4  2 
13ers: 102 11 5
Trip Reports (10)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by Jorts »

Conor wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 9:03 am
This conversation always goes down the same road with people throwing out the word "heuristic" like they're writing their phd thesis.
Jeez, man. Who are you and why do you seemingly hate me? I've taken several avy courses and helped run some as well. FACETS is a great acronym to consider to be aware of and avoid heuristic traps that can get you in trouble.

Familiarity
Acceptance
Consistency
Expert
Tracks
Scarcity

With more experienced folks in particular, a person has skied a slope hundreds of times without event. As a result, they may be blind to the unusual factors that they have never encountered on that slope before that could make it more dangerous.

I didn't write a phd thesis on heuristic traps but I'm familiar (no pun intended) with them and their role in avalanche accidents. Not sure why you're dismissive.
Traveling light is the only way to fly.
IG: @colorado_invasive
Strava: Brent Herring
User avatar
Conor
Posts: 1112
Joined: 9/2/2014
14ers: 41  6  6 
13ers: 51 1 1
Trip Reports (7)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by Conor »

Jorts wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:25 am
Conor wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 9:03 am
This conversation always goes down the same road with people throwing out the word "heuristic" like they're writing their phd thesis.
Jeez, man. Who are you and why do you seemingly hate me? I've taken several avy courses and helped run some as well. FACETS is a great acronym to consider to be aware of and avoid heuristic traps that can get you in trouble.

Familiarity
Acceptance
Consistency
Expert
Tracks
Scarcity

With more experienced folks in particular, a person has skied a slope hundreds of times without event. As a result, they may be blind to the unusual factors that they have never encountered on that slope before that could make it more dangerous.

I didn't write a phd thesis on heuristic traps but I'm familiar (no pun intended) with them and their role in avalanche accidents. Not sure why you're dismissive.
I didn't actually see you wrote it...my bad. So, if me not reading what you wrote and apparently someone else used after the fact gets you offended, I'm not sure I can help you with that.

My issue with it is the use to make one sounds smarter (regardless if they are or not). Strunk & white had something about never using a dollar word/phrase when penny words suffice. While I understand it to some degree, how does it help in a thread that is supposed to help people who are new to traveling in avy terrain? If you want me to say you're cooler/faster/10x the athlete I'll ever be..."you're cooler/faster/10x the athlete I'll ever be". I apologize if I offended you in this thread. now can we move on from you?
User avatar
cottonmountaineering
Posts: 849
Joined: 5/11/2018
14ers: 58  7  18 
13ers: 178 38 31
Trip Reports (1)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by cottonmountaineering »

Conor wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:48 am
Jorts wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:25 am
Conor wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 9:03 am
This conversation always goes down the same road with people throwing out the word "heuristic" like they're writing their phd thesis.
Jeez, man. Who are you and why do you seemingly hate me? I've taken several avy courses and helped run some as well. FACETS is a great acronym to consider to be aware of and avoid heuristic traps that can get you in trouble.

Familiarity
Acceptance
Consistency
Expert
Tracks
Scarcity

With more experienced folks in particular, a person has skied a slope hundreds of times without event. As a result, they may be blind to the unusual factors that they have never encountered on that slope before that could make it more dangerous.

I didn't write a phd thesis on heuristic traps but I'm familiar (no pun intended) with them and their role in avalanche accidents. Not sure why you're dismissive.
I didn't actually see you wrote it...my bad. So, if me not reading what you wrote and apparently someone else used after the fact gets you offended, I'm not sure I can help you with that.

My issue with it is the use to make one sounds smarter (regardless if they are or not). Strunk & white had something about never using a dollar word/phrase when penny words suffice. While I understand it to some degree, how does it help in a thread that is supposed to help people who are new to traveling in avy terrain? If you want me to say you're cooler/faster/10x the athlete I'll ever be..."you're cooler/faster/10x the athlete I'll ever be". I apologize if I offended you in this thread. now can we move on from you?
heuristic trap is the term, not a made up dollar word

google heuristic trap and youll see its all avalanche related
User avatar
justiner
Posts: 4396
Joined: 8/28/2010
14ers: 58  8 
13ers: 138
Trip Reports (40)
 
Contact:

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by justiner »

Conor wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:15 am
I dislike caltopo because it is nothing more than a planning tool. Which I think is the point you and many others are looking to make. I look at it, but it doesn't dictate what I do in the field.
Although I think Caltopo is a great planning tool before a trip, it does come in app-form now as well, and has a ton of tools to print out paper maps. Really useful in the field on multiday trips in BFN.

I really think a caltopo map (that anyone could really make) of historical slides would be useful, if only for an educational tool. Sidecountry areas as well, as those less inclined to learn avy safety are going to go anyways, and the chances people's guards are already down are great (Berthoud Pass, etc).
Last edited by justiner on Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Jorts
Posts: 1113
Joined: 4/12/2013
14ers: 58  4  2 
13ers: 102 11 5
Trip Reports (10)
 

Re: Avy concerns: Unusually dangerous conditions

Post by Jorts »

Conor wrote: Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:48 am My issue with it is the use to make one sounds smarter (regardless if they are or not). Strunk & white had something about never using a dollar word/phrase when penny words suffice. While I understand it to some degree, how does it help in a thread that is supposed to help people who are new to traveling in avy terrain? If you want me to say you're cooler/faster/10x the athlete I'll ever be..."you're cooler/faster/10x the athlete I'll ever be". I apologize if I offended you in this thread. now can we move on from you?
"Heuristic" is the word for those mental shortcuts. I don't know the synonym for heuristic that you prefer?

It helps in this thread because if anyone wonders, how could all these older experienced folks be getting caught in slides?... My guess would be, they were familiar with the areas where they were skiing and as a result had long ago deemed them safe thereby missing signs that might have suggested they were unusually unsafe. That is the familiarity heuristic trap.

I am not seeking validation from you. I was just wondering why every response from you of late seemed kind of snarky or jerky or passive aggressive. I thought maybe I had done something to you. I'd prefer not to focus on me. Thanks.
Traveling light is the only way to fly.
IG: @colorado_invasive
Strava: Brent Herring
Post Reply