New to 14ers, leery of weather

[teamfindleyrm]

Hello everyone. I'm relatively new to CO having just relocated from the Midwest in December. As such I'm not yet familiar with the summer weather here. My wife and I are looking to make our first attempt on a 14er this weekend with a hike up the NW slope of Pikes Peak. We also were going to do this last weekend but saw potential rain/storms in the forecast. We called off the hike and now this week I've been seeing many posts here and on the Facebook page showing people reaching summits all of last weekend. Needless to say we were quite disappointed that we didn't make the attempt. I searched the forums and could not find an answer to my concerns, though if I missed it I apologize for the redundant question. My question is this: at what point does the forecast become reliable enough to either go for the hike or cancel it? It's looking again like rain is in the forecast this weekend and we are hoping not to call off another hike. Thanks in advance for any tips you may have.

[denvermikey]

You are smart to be leery of the weather. It isn't so much the precipitation to worry about as much as the lightning. The general rule of thumb is to be well off the summit before noon. Although I prefer to be way off by then, even back to treeline if possible if there is any decent chance of thunder storms. The trick is to start early enough to be able to accomplish this, even pre-dawn if necessary. Keep in mind, noon isn't a hard deadline either. Lightning can, and has many times before, strike at any time during the day. This time of year, and well into August, tends to be our normal afternoon storm season.

[wildlobo71]

There's no one surefire way of predicting a good forecast from a report a week out from the date... It would happen to me and friends all the time, we have a trip next Saturday and on Monday we are pissed because long range forecasts look bad - and probably a lot worse than "chances are 30-40%". A day or two ahead, check the weather. All those "chances" mean conditions are favorable for something to happen 30 or 40% (or whatever the chance predictability is) of the time. So if it's clear in the morning, or partly cloudy with a 30% chance of a thunderstorm after 2pm - your chances increased but it also means it may not be all that likely.

Eventually you'll work your way out into conditions that may have bothered you - on paper - but your work through them and learn to read clouds, humidity, conditions and figure things out for yourself. There are good rules of thumb to follow - be down below tree-line before noon... <--- this is the first rule I tend to break both because I'm slow and typically I've gone when morning weather isn't as active (meaning I've been more lucky than not.) But always keep an eye out for building conditions; if clouds are growing upwards fast in the morning, and moving swiftly, to me - that just signals activity is likely to some level and I better figure out where I want to be in the next hour.

I've risked weather a lot; enough to know that it's not always bad to hike in rain or snow, I'd prefer it to a lot of wind. Grauple is an annoyance but as long as it's not connected to lightning and thunder, just keep going unless it really bothers you.

It really is a gut call, and sometimes you'll kick yourself for missing out.

[Laura M]

I started off by hiking in groups with an experienced leader who knew how to read the weather better than I did. As I start to do more solo hikes, I've found these two resources helpful:

https://rootsrated.com/stories/a-field- ... gh-country

https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/wkgr ... 031607.pdf

And these for knowing what to do if you get caught in a storm:

http://rendezvous.nols.edu/files/Curric ... ochure.pdf

https://www.climbing.com/skills/learn-t ... lightning/

https://goo.gl/cfFo99

[wyyld]

https://www.climbing.com/skills/learn-t ... n-weather/


Early starts mitigate a lot of the risk. Personally I only do 14ers if the weather looks bluebird but that's not always an option for some. Reading clouds is a must.

[James Dziezynski]

In Colorado, it's quite normal to start your hike pre-dawn (4am or 5am is usually the latest start I'll take on most days, even on less demanding summits). Reading weather is a skill that comes with time, but good decisions can happen at any experience level.

Note that storms can form very, very quickly in Colorado, especially on very hot days. I've seen cloudless blue sky transformed in 15 minutes to a raging thunderstorm. It's not the norm, but it can happen. A few other thoughts:

- Some may disagree with the practice, but I hate lingering on summits. Unless I have an absolutely pristine sky above me, I tend to save my lunch / snack breaks for elsewhere on the mountain.

- Once you learn your own pace, you will be able to gauge your expected ascent / descent time. Until then, it's a good idea to err on the side of an earlier start.

- For big demanding days, I prefer September and October for the decreased storm potential and cooler temps.

[metalmountain]

Generally speaking I feel like most summer days here in CO you can get up a peak if you are willing to get up early enough, and be flexible with your plans. Last weekend we were planning on some big scrambling routes but the weather forecast (80% chance of rain/t-storms after noon) made me wary of the potential for being on exposed terrain if things kicked off early. So we adjusted our plans to routes we know we could turn around and bail on quickly, and got up at 3 AM to start the hike from camp. We did get rained/sleeted on during the decent, but no lightning until we were back below tree line. So its not that the weather wasn't bad, because it was. We got poured on the whole hike back to the car basically after we packed up our camp. Early on in my 14ererering life I would have bailed on last weekend without question. So don't feel bad about it. To be honest we were very close to bailing last weekend ourselves.

Once you become more familiar with the weather out here you can make game time decisions, but if the weather looks iffy stick to easier routes and ones where you can quickly get below treeline until you become more comfortable with getting a read on the weather. After awhile you will learn which clouds mean immediate threat, versus ones that will likely burn off, or how much time you probably have before something kicks off once the bad clouds start developing. It will also help once you get a handle on which way the storms move around here and which direction they come from.

[jagorzynski]

Everyone else has pretty much covered it. But just to reiterate: Even with a 90% rain/thunder in the forecast, during the summer a lot of times this just means in the afternoon. The morning can still be bluebird. It goes the other way too. I've had nasty storms roll in when the forecast is down at 10%. I've come to kind of ignore the forecast to be honest. I just get an early start and make the judgement call on the mountain.

Also, and this is important: The NW Slopes of Pikes is a 14 mile route. That's a pretty long go. And being that you're from the midwest (I'm originally from the east coast so I speak from experience) you will probably be slowed a bit more by the altitude. My point being that you should definitely get as early a start as you can. Another option is to make one of the "entry level" 14ers your first attempt (Bierstadt, Sherman, Grays or Torreys or both are all options). These are shorter so the margin for error on timing is a lot bigger and you can get a feel for your hiking pace for future 14ers.

Have fun and be safe

[Timothy]

As mentioned above, lightning is probably the greatest danger from the weather, but not the only one. In late August of last year for example, my kids and I started up Democrat at about 6:00 AM. The weather forecast called for a 20% chance of rain in the afternoon. The wind picked up and it started snowing when we were about halfway up the mountain, and by the time we were just below the false summit there was about three inches of fresh snow on the ground and the wind was blowing snow into our faces about 35-40 mph. It was then that I decided to turn around and try another day (that day was three weeks ago with gorgeous weather, practically zero wind on the summit).

A couple weeks ago there was a trip report from someone new to 14ers who tried Mt. Massive as their first summit and many things went wrong, some of which were self-inflicted and most of which could have been avoided. One of their party started experiencing AMS symptoms, which is mostly unpredictable. I couldn't agree more that starting with one of the easier peaks is the way to go. Sherman is only a couple of hours from Denver or Colorado Springs, you start the hike about timberline, and if anyone starts having altitude sickness symptoms you aren't more than a couple miles or so from the trailhead even at the summit. Get the kinks regarding route selection, equipment, clothing, footwear, food, water, emergency supplies and plans worked out on a lesser mountain and you will be glad you did.

[teamfindleyrm]

Thanks for all the info! It's helpful to know the hesitation on canceling isn't just me. We do have a lot of experience hiking and have done multiple peaks into the 10-11k range so we do know our pace somewhat. We mainly chose Pikes because we live in Colorado Springs and figured the proximity makes it easier to swallow of the weather stops us. We have considered Bierstadt, Grays and Torrey's as well based on the info on this site.

[pmeadco]

If you are going to get serious about 14ers then you may as well get used to getting up early. I know some people hate having to be on the trail before sunrise but I find that it makes a big difference in whether you can get up and down safely or you get weathered out and have to come back another day. Many times I have been on the trail between 3-4am. Spend a little time in the search pages and you should find plenty of topics in this forum related to weather, how to read it, where to find reliable forecasts, and when most people decide to bail out.

One advantage with Pikes Peak is it has a visitors center ("Summit House") on the top where you can hang out if the weather turns bad. If the storms hang on you can probably find someone to take you back down to Devil's Playground, which is a section of the trail about 1000' feet above tree line, or if you are lucky, drive you all the way back to the trailhead.

Finally, a lot of people say "you will be safe if you can get back below tree line". From everything I've read, it makes little, if any difference, so don't be lulled into thinking you are in the safe zone if you get back to the trees. Just keep trudging along and don't rush it. You don't want to get hurt because you lost your footing while trying to scurry down the trail.

[Wentzl]

I never start before 9:00 a.m. and many times begin climbs after noon. Weather is a fun part of being outside. Storms have chased me off less than 1% of my attempts. Only a handful of times have I sheltered in place while a storm raged overhead. Very exciting. Almost always I get the summit to myself. Watching the storms dissipate in the late afternoon from up high is usually pretty amazing. Rainbows, distant thunder, no wind at all. Some of the best and most memorable experiences in the mountains. Think of the people running races like the Hardrock 100 or Leadville 100. 100 or more people all running around above treeline weather be damned. I was running with a doctor once and there were storms around and the course just happened to be taking us where normal people would not want to go and he asked if I knew CPR, just in case. Pretty funny stuff. Heading up LIndsey some time ago, getting to treeline around 1:00 in the afternoon and seeing about 70 people heading down, having abandoned their attempt due to storms which were just a memory when I tagged my summit. I will never understand the people who get up at 3:00 a.m. to climb a 14er.

My point is that you make your plans and and if the chance of thunder storms is 60% or less, then just go.