Based on this weather forecast, would you hike it?

[transistor]

I'm hoping to do Decalibron on Monday and I'm a little concerned considering this will be only the 2nd 14er I've hiked and I'm not experienced with judging weather forecasts yet. I've attached the forecast below. Does this look safe enough as long as I finish before noon?

[Mtnman200]

That forecast wouldn't stop me as long as I got an early start and was down from exposed ridges/summits by noon.

[Cruiser]

I wouldn't make the no go decision based on that forecast. But I'd certainly adjust my schedule in order to give myself a better chance if being down to the car by 11. There's no shelter on that route up high so you've gotta be prepared to be all the way down by the time the crud rolls in.

That route has such a short approach that you'll be up high enough to see what's building in the skies before it has a chance to get right on top of you. So yeah, I'd go up there and see what I got if I already had the time blocked out for the climb.

[Jim Davies]

NOAA's forecast for Monday looks OK to me. As said above, get an early start.

[MonGoose]

I'm hoping to do Decalibron on Monday and I'm a little concerned considering this will be only the 2nd 14er I've hiked and I'm not experienced with judging weather forecasts yet. I've attached the forecast below. Does this look safe enough as long as I finish before noon?

Based on the forecast you posted, this is a typical Monsoon Season forecast for thunderstorms in the afternoon. The way I read this forecast is you have a solid climbing window forecast from 4am - 11am. After that it could storm or it could be clear all day. In terms of planning, I would definitely plan to climb in the morning with a forecast like that. Now, the caveat is, the weather doesn't always follow the forecast. So if you start seeing dark clouds at 9am, don't hesitate to turn around even though the forecast might still look good.

[transistor]

.

[Trotter]

I'm hoping to do Decalibron on Monday and I'm a little concerned considering this will be only the 2nd 14er I've hiked and I'm not experienced with judging weather forecasts yet. I've attached the forecast below. Does this look safe enough as long as I finish before noon?

Based on the forecast you posted, this is a typical Monsoon Season forecast for thunderstorms in the afternoon. The way I read this forecast is you have a solid climbing window forecast from 4am - 11am. After that it could storm or it could be clear all day. In terms of planning, I would definitely plan to climb in the morning with a forecast like that. Now, the caveat is, the weather doesn't always follow the forecast. So if you start seeing dark clouds at 9am, don't hesitate to turn around even though the forecast might still look good.

+1

[huffy13]

That forecast wouldn't stop me as long as I got an early start and was down from exposed ridges/summits by noon.

Just a note on this point, I used this as my guide when I did Sunshine/Redcloud this last Tuesday and there were storms dropping rain, grauple and lightning before 11. Usually this is a good rule of thumb, I ended up with a wet, slippery descent back to Silver Creek/Grizzly Gulch.

[Urban Snowshoer]

Weather forecasts are just that: forecasts. Like any other prediction, sometimes weather forecasts are correct and sometimes they are not. Starting early is a must; however, it's hard to know exactly when the thunderstorms will show up: i.e. the 1-4% chance of thunderstorms in the morning could bear out, or you might not get thunderstorms until later in the day (if at all).

The accuracy of weather forecasts has improved over the years; however, there is still no substitute for using your own judgement about the weather and making an appropriate "go or no go" decision as conditions warrant.